India US Relationship, US Prez visit India on Republic day 2015

Security implication of the US Prez visit

20 Jan 2015 (All India Radio - News Analysis)

Participants: Anil Kamboach, Former IG, BSG and Diwesh Kumar Pandey, The Hindu

Transcription:

What is going to be the perceptional and real change about the security arrangement being made for US Prez visit?

1600 Security personnel from US; Indian Force: 7 different layer of Security – Outermost Paramilitary Force (CRPF, CISF, BSF) – Second layer (Vehicle parking) Cameras identifying Individuals (system initially fed with the photos of the known criminals);

Concern of US Security force – as US prez is to be out in the open ground for long 2 hours?

Close coordination with the Delhi Police – scrutinizing the likely routes to be taken – RADARs, No-Fly Zone;

Elaborate security   - highest level of security – as US involved in the fight against ISIS – threat from the terrorist outfit?

War against ISIS, Al-Qaeda, Islamic Fundamentalist; suspicious message would be intercepted, will be monitored;

Counter measure by the Govt. to prevent Infiltration?

Probable infiltration usually through International border and LoC – Borders are in Red Alert;

Peace during the visit – How important for the Indian Force?

Pakistan will not peaceful with the talk of Obama - Indian Security Agency has taken due precautions;

Threat from Taliban? As they don’t take any activities in Indo-Pak Border.

Taliban fight against the Authority/Established Govt. in Afghanistan;

Good Taliban – Haqqani Group – which Pakistan Support, to disturb the neighboring countries and whereas Bad Taliban – which fight against the Security force;

Breaking away from the Norms/convention visiting dignitary to be accompanied by the Indian PM during Republic Day Celebration;

US Prez to travel in his own convoy “The Beast” heavier than 747 Aircraft – Blast proof;

Blocking of Agra Super High Way – baring the problem other passenger - for VVVIP Security;

Day & Night Alertness – Intelligence Camera – Information/Data sharing with Indian & US security Agencies - Coordination;

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Indo US Trade Agenda

22 Jan 2015(All India Radio - News Analysis)

Participants: Chinthamani Mahapatra, JNU and Mahendra ved, Senior Journalist

Transcription:

Ahead of US Prez Obama Visit to India; John Kerry visits India – Economic side?

Indo US Economic Relation; EU facing economic crisis since 2008 and similarly china, Brazilian, Russian all developing economies are in crisis whereas India’s Economy is reviving; It could be more than that of China by 2016; Modi’s Foreign Policy agenda so far dominated with Economics – from Japanese $35Bn investment committed; with Chinese Prez $20Bn investment committed; with US $41Bn could come to India; Opening Indian Market to Foreign Technologies & Investment;

Apart from this – the relation carry its own problems – Climate Issue, IPR issues, Nuke liability Clause… India’s entire economy depends on Coal sourced Energy which contradict with the Climate Change commitment;

India’s Pollution of GHG is few/minute fraction compared to that of China & US; Dynamic growth of India’s Economy demand more energy – dependence on Fossil Fuel; Collaboration with US in Technology Transfer – Clean Energy Generation; and Nuke Dimension – it involves lot of Business – GE & Westinghouse US based Companies – Liability clause; Non-Nuclear but Renewable source of Energy – Solar power generation; IPR issue: Production of Generic drug to ensure universal access of Medical facility in India, India cannot compromise at the cost of Indian Masses;

John Kerry was here for Vibrant Gujarat; any solution made for the above issues?

Time is too short – negotiations are going on; revival of relationship after khobargade Issue;

Will this meet would provide specific deals or just broad parameter?

Beyond symbolic issuance of statement – this time something concrete could come out; In Defence sector, US want to build relation beyond mere trader – 17 different Technology Transfer offered for negotiation; Sensitive Technology- speed boat surveillance over Chinese;

John Kerry pitching for 5 times growth in India- US Trade i.e. $500 Bn, as already China –US Trade reached above $500Bn;

Modi aspire for $20Trillion Economy much ahead of US; India’s Investment in US goes 30 times higher since 2000 (From $300Mn to $9Bn);

Opening IPR Issues; Problems of FDI – Insurance, Bank, Health Sector, Defence Production; US demand India to open up all sector;

American is typically Businessman – India’s Demographic Distribution is different – so India’s is more careful country – to ensure Social Justice to the masses;

Rajiv Gandhi Era – Bhopal UCC case – Bad Experience;

Bhopal Gas Tragedy happened in a Chemical Company but we have frightening Nuke incidents of Chernobyl, Fukishima – India’s Concern is that Nuke Trade should be 100% foolproof – 100% liability on the Company never happen across the world, it hinder the Business;

Job creation in both the country;

Outsourcing cannot be encouraged in US; India demand free flow of capital & free flow of Labour/Services; Win-Win situation can be made with some compromises;  

Significance of US Prez visit

25 Jan 2015(All India Radio - News Analysis)

Participants: Prof. Subrato Mukherjie, Former Faculty, Delhi University and Adithi Tandan, Associate Editor, Tribune

Transcription:

High held summit among Indian PM & US Prez – significant revival of the bilateral relation 

however in tarter about a year ago – after the Khobargade Issue; First US Prez to attend Republic day function;

Lot of substantial issues to be carried – Joint statement, Defence, Climate Change, Indo-US Nuke deal; how do you see the progress in Indo-US Relationship?

Historic moment; Entire period of recent history – bi-partisanship of India’s Foreign Policy; first point made by our PM is Civil Nuke Deal done during UPA Regime; Cornerstone of relation revolves around that; two larger democracies; ultimately larger process of decision making in foreign policy; larger perception on context national interest, context of leadership, context of people to people relation, context of civilization term;

PM Modi – repeatedly address US Prez as Barack – sort of personal understanding; breaking convention, PM himself went to receive Foreign visiting dignitary;

Emphasis on Symbolism – Obama interview to a Magazine in India – recognize the symbolic visit to India, to begin new era of history between the two countries;

Symbolism vs. Sub tern part after joint declaration, how do you see it?

Symbolism matter quite abate specially in this usual age– Domestic pattern of politics and International politics converge; US Prez concentrate more on Legislature process whereas Indian PM focus on Electoral process;

Symbolism is metaphorically a departure from the past practice, for instance: tradition in the cold war days or follow up of NAM, a equidistance – moved to new partnership – unilateral world – Ideological battle of yesteryears are relegated back foot; US see India as Emerging power, Democratic power, Countervailing power, Stabilizing Power in the South Asia; In that context Asia without India is incomplete;

Deliverable made at the joint statement – Indo US civil Nuke deal (commercial agreement after 6 years) – Liability clause (Supplier Clause); and on Clean Energy Issue – to address the Climate Change – US agreement with China – US pressurize India to accept some sort of Emission cut; How do you look at these pressures?

US & China agreement lack specificity – it is just a broad area of agreement; Economic development, levels of Development is very different among India, US and China; Climate change & Global warming are major concern;

India’s Interest – Permanent membership in UN – US affirm India met the requirement of NMCT to get membership in NSG; but US was not seem to be active in promoting India’s Call;

UNSC is different all together; If Germany is included, Italy will oppose; If Japan included, Korea may not like it; If Brazil is included, Argentina will oppose; If India is included, there is expected opposition from Pakistan; So it working on Idea of Rotational System of Term Membership; President has accepted the need for the Reform;

India and America shared interest in Asia Pacific Region - China’s Assertion in South China sea - US siding Indian Interest on that – how do you see it?

There should be Equilibrium – the region is growing;

“Nobel Friends and Companions are whole of the holy life” – PM Modi

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kaly%C4%81%E1%B9%87a-mittat%C4%81

Also to note:

“What Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. said then remains true today - “The spirit of Gandhi is very much alive in India today. And it remains a great gift to the world. May we always live in his spirit of love and peace – among all people and nations, he wrote in the guest book.

(Barrack Obama, on 25 Jan 2015 – in Visitor’s Log - Rajghat)

WTO – historical Trade Facilitation Agreement

28 November 2014 (All India Radio News Analysis)

Dr. Ranjith Mehtha, Director CCI and Arjun Choudry, Senior Economic Journalist

GIST:

Issues surrounding the Agreement & Outcome of the Agreement; Challenges before India

In the Context of India – Food Security Act 2013 –Bound by the law- food to poorest of the poor - Right to Food; UN’s Millennium Development Goal – Eradication of Poverty & Hunger; Background of TFA – cap of 10% of the Farm Output – difficult for country like India – it would not be able to feed the poorest of poor – promised 2/3 population (83Cr) for free food; in G33 – China supported India’s Stand;

TFA – only after Mutual consent of Signatories – Taxation procedure, clearances in the port authority –are simplified - addition of customs duty to food – plight to the needy at minimum cost;

Not only question of Taxation – Bureaucratic hurdle (Red Tapism) need to be removed; Basic need of the Agreement – to safeguard was – to look the food security of 82 Cr people; India spent Rs.1Lakh Cr annually for food security – 62 Mn tonnes of food grain per year;

Base of the price (for 10% Cap) – prices of 1986 & 1988 – but in 30 years – prices of cereals & food grains had jumped up – it violates the foundation of MDM – eradicate poverty & hunger;

Ensure supply at affordable cost – without obstacle across jurisdiction – clear ports - Subjective clearance – TFA;

Consider the figures, India: $12 Bn Subsidy to its 500Mn farmers – whereas- US: $120Bn Subsidy to its 2 Mn farmers; the basic concept cannot be compared;

Concerns of Developed countries: that Developing grain – hoarding food grains – future may dump in the International market; this can be controlled by proper mechanism – in the age of digitalization; dumping of food grains at low cost might affect the market;

Challenge before India: implementing Food Subsidy

Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT) program – Subsidy to the Bank account – Hoarding/ Dumping can be prevented; Indian Govt. Cannot compromise with the Food Security of the Millions of poor;

WTO Dispute settlement mechanism Procedure – Adopted in India

India – Proposal – settlement of dispute – grievance settlement through the mechanism; General council meet of WTO; meet to be held in 2015 – for settlement of the issue;

Global Reference Prices

1. Objective of the Developing countries – basic concern is to feed poorest of the poor;

Indian way – target of Beneficiary – food security

UIDAI – DBT – PMJDY- Financial Inclusion- Transfer of subsidy in their Bank account; Easy to have checks & balance; proper mechanism should be adopted to monitor the functioning of the Scheme;

 Actual Supply of the Food grain? Mobilization of Resources?

Govt. should rely on the System driven mechanism for proper implementation of the scheme, rather than people driven;

Finding Principle Beneficiary – Electorate – financial burden – so Fiscal Deficit? Effect on the Economy? Also affecting Flexibility provided by the fall in oil prices?

Commerce Industrial Minister of India – Role in the Agreement – TFA?

Creation of mechanism for the future; if 10% cap followed by all developing countries - $1 Tn of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) to Global Economy – will create around 20 Mn Jobs; but ultimately it would affect the food security of the poorest of the poor; 

Issues before 18th SAARC Summit & Outcome - Nov 2014

21 November 2014 (All India Radio News Analysis)

Sheelkanth Sharma, Former Secy. Gen, SAARC, and Soni Mishra, Journalist

GIST:

18^th SAARC Summit @ Kathmandu – November 2014 – Theme of the Summit: Deeper integration to the creation of Peace, Progress & Prosperity; Expectation of the Summit?

Climate of Inter-dependence - Support from Neighbors – essential for a Nation to flourish; since 2002, Last SAARC Summit – Peace, primary requisite of the Region;

Indian Cabinet approved for the signing of 3 Agreements – Energy Cooperation, Motor Vehicle Agreement (Movement of People & Goods), and Rail Connection – how far it would bring deeper integration?

Connectivity – hassle free transportation – frame work Agreement – followed by bilateral cooperation; Energy Cooperation – Pak, Bang, India – Different Time Zone; Srilanka & India, Nuke Power plant; Power from Nepal & Bhutan – HEP potential;

Role of Indian PM at SAARC Summit – Vision for SAARC?

High priority Building good relation with the Neighbors; Visit to Neighboring country; Man of Action – Dynamism – Positivity - No Iota of Negativity in PM’s Statement in last 6 months; Good Omen to all of this Region;

Possibility Bilateral Meeting between India & Pakistan?  Last minute cancelation of meet earlier in this year;

Nurture the Hope, Messages from India have been for working out a dialogue & same time insistence – dialogue cannot proceed under firing;

1995 – Inception of SAARC – India & Pak relations overshadowed –

Expected bilateral meet between India & Afghanistan? In reconstruction of Afghan in Post 2014 / Post NATO?

Afghan requires National Building – power, hospital … demand Indian contribution;

30^th year of SAARC – criticized to be meet Talk-Shop – amending SAARC charter – forming deeper integrations like EU or ASEAN?

We probably began centrifugally – bringing them together – different qualitatively.

Achievement of SAARC – Services Agreement, Banks, South Asia University, SAARC Development Goals (SDG), Line ministers meet every year;

Outcome of SAARC Summit

27 November 2014

Participant Prof. S T Muni, Former Diplomat and Mahendra Ved, Journalist

GIST:

India proposed 3 Agreement – apparent reservation for Pakistan;

Critical Agreement: Road, Rail, Energy; Connectivity facilitate Trade, Tourism, People to People Exchanges; 

Indian Nepal already working Road Connectivity; Afghan should proceed though Pak ignore;

Pakistan import Oil & Gas from Central Asia; India gets Electricity form Bhutan; Pak & Nepal Import Electricity from India;

India’s offer to Nepal: Immediate Medical VISA, E Connectivity (E Library & Online courses), SAARC business Travel card, India to bridge Fund Shortage, SAARC regional Super Reference Library… Statesman like Address – Modi vision of Barrier free South Asia;

Open Indian to the Neighbors – in matter of Trade, VISA, Investment, Infrastructure, Education, Health Services, Satelliete (SAARC Sat) – come together – progress together; hum pass pass bhi hain, lekin saath saath bhi ho (The need of the hour is that we don't just remain near each other, but be together as well); Geographically close together, making it close together socially, culturally, Economically;

Issue of Trade – only 5% within the region formally; Informal Trade expands – troubling the region – reason lies in Lack of Connectivity- make the product costlier; with this Umbrella agreement – different Stakeholder – ground work – to complete it;

China Factor in SAARC – promised $30Bn for Infra Projects – wanted Trade to reach $150Bn; - creation of new apprehension?

 Market capability of the Region – 1.6 Bn people grows at the rate of 5%- Huge Market – no country in the world can neglect this region; Economic muscle of China – before making china full member of SAARC – with Veto power – china may create trouble in development process- it’s behavior in other regional forum should be verified;

India –Nepal: 10 Agreements – trust deficit & reservation – bridged;

India – Bangladesh: Pending Agreement; India- Srilanka: Amendment & Provincial Autonomy;

Region without Dispute: Sharif, and Cooperation with in the Region: Modi (fighting poverty & Malnutrition, together);

G20 Summit- November 2014

Relevance of G20 Summit

15 November 2014 (All India Radio - News Analysis)

S J Muni, Former Diplomat and Sanjay Thapar, Senior Journalist

GIST:

Various issue need to be tackled in urgent manner – Indian PM – concept of repatriating Black money. Present situation of Russian belligerence – whether consensus in the summit?

-          G20 is global economic issues whereas Russian & Ukraine issue may rise in important Political sense. European union wants answer from Russia – Sensitive issue in EU context; Russia – naval ships – around Australia; is it a revival of Cold war; Multilateral cooperation with Russia, India’s View point – also Russia part of BRICS.

Black money issue – money circulating in the International market – Bringing back Black money – any progress in that direction?

-          Perception of G20 – conceived when the western economies sliding down – Russia, Brazil, South Africa were growing very fast; G8 western summit forum expanded; it contribute 85% of the Global Economy; Issues highlighter by Australia – MNC – transfer profit to Tax haven – financial arrangement must be brought into the matter.

Climate change issues at the Summit

-          Those Emitting more, takes very less step to control the emission; India & china are being pressurized; US & China – Recent restriction on Emission; Developing countries demand Technological support from the western countries; US to cut 28% of Emission, China, beyond 2020-30 no rise in emission; Recalibrating Indian position to be more Objective;

Global Economic Recovery, since 2008 US Crisis;

Continuing Joblessness, India excluded from the aftermath of the crisis. So Easing out and progressing Job-full growth?

-          No growth in the west – Projections EU 0% growth, US- growth comes down affecting job market. All efforts targeted at Productivity of these economy – Global GDP need to be increase to 2% - Manufacturing & Infrastructure emphasized; Percolation of Growth to the down 20% - Uplift the people - Distribution of the profit;

Job-full growth in India – PM pushing forward ‘Make in India’ Campaign at various forum– Any Progress or whether concept materialized at the Summit?

-          Though it is not agenda in this summit, campaign is emphasized in Bilateral talks; Increase productivity – skills, zero pollution; harnessing mobilizing maximum investment; G20 – provided an opportunity to meet 20 leaders of world economy – appealing them to invest in India;

Indian PM meet French president – Bilateral talk – Issue of Smart Cities & Energy Sector – Indo France Collaboration;

-          With China, Australia, US (TFA, Food Security, Bali Package), earlier with Myanmar;  

Chinese presence – Australian country & Pacific – compete with India

-          China – recognized economy – But the level of appeal is in different context; Australia’s Modi fever, Fiji with more Indian Population - India have greater advantages, though in economic promises China is far ahead of us;

 This came to you in the program News Analysis produced & presented by News services division on All India Radio.

Black money issue at G20 forum

17 November 2014

E C Gupta, former Finance Secy., and Sanjay Jha, Indian Bureau Chief, ITN news London

PM Modi stated that Indian support all Initiative which facilitate automatic exchange of information that ultimately helps in tracing unaccounted money and eventual repatriation;

Steps taken in India – List of Names in Supreme Court, Special Task force; how do you look this statement of PM?

-          Raising the issue in such forum – making other countries aware of the issue – pushing the importance;

-          Many Asian countries face this problem – which demand Transparency, Automatic exchange of information, coordination among the countries;

-          Resolution in G20 forum will do nothing. It requires agreement between countries; India has initiated Information Exchange Agreement/ Tax Information Exchange with 13 countries.

Policy coordination between major economies - G20 countries contributes 80% of Global Economy – Forum can unearth Black Money – will discussion & forum bring together;

-          International Pressure builds up on Tax haven Monaco, Cayman Island which are small jurisdiction – Economy survives on this – Eg. Mauritius (Post Box Companies); At least Tax Information can be shared with this international pressure; Tax realization can be possible; Illegal activities – Terror funding, gambling can be checked;

New Global Standard on Automatic exchange of Information – Instrument for unaccounted money in Tax havens; will this be possible?

-          International Convention mandatory to be followed; Problem in India is Double Taxation Agreement signed before 2009 ( No international standard at that time); Tax Information aide the Tax Authority to trace unaccounted money;

Possibility of Revoking the Agreement like DTAA - then go for Information sharing?

-          DTAA is legitimate and is different – prevent a person from paying tax in two countries; If used for purpose of Avoiding tax – this cannot be justified; Information Agreement is different and DTAA countries can also come in to Information Sharing;

Drug trafficking, Arms smuggling, Terror financing, - hitting the Black money – need for close coordination between developed, developing and small countries; will the small countries Tax Haven understand the importance of the concerns of the country like India?

-          G20 Communiqué mentioned about it; detrimental to the development of any country;

Increased Mobility of capital and Technology – opportunity for avoiding Tax and profit shifting – India Special treaty - BEPS (Base Erosions and Profit Shifting) –would address these concerns?

-          BEPS – Transfer pricing – International standard – TP also used as Tax avoiding method;

What was the Reaction of other countries, regarding the issue of Black money, which Indian PM raised in ASEAN, BRICS forum earlier?

-          Issue common in Asian and surrounding countries; Now political dimension given to the issue – In India, Domestically given priority;  curb the black money within the country( curb the source);

“India’s Domestic black money is greater than that of outside” – Real Estate prevalence of Black money – Some sector where cash transactions is not part of National Economy. Can this thing be streamlined?

-          Opening up of  Economy -In 2003-04, Indian allowed purchase country abroad, citizens allowed to buy properties abroad, no restriction on Remittance; Opening up make it difficult to identify or trace the money flow; No inspector for the Real estate sector which is more fragile sector– destination for most of the illegal money & tax evader; Transparency and Tax enforcement are very essential; 

 This came to you in the program News Analysis produced & presented by News services division on All India Radio.