Indian Economy and Development - Assignment 2

Find the balance of payments of your country in the IMF BOP Statistical Yearbook 2012 (use the standard presentation of the BOP, do not use the analytic presentation yet, the difference will be explained later on, in the first video of “The Basics of External Sector Analysis”). Also, find the balance of payments of your country published by either the central bank, or some other statistical agency. Compare the current account across different presentations.

Are they structured in the same way? Are they presented in the same currency?

Do they show the same numbers (after converting to the same currency if needed)? Is the current account balance the same? How about the financial account, or reserve assets? Are errors and omissions the same?

At this stage of the course we have not started yet to discuss how to analyze external sector developments. Becoming familiar with broad BOP developments is a preliminary step towards a fully fledged analysis. The next few questions will help you build such familiarity.

Is balance on goods and services in surplus or deficit? How about the primary and secondary balance?

How much does your country export and import relative to GDP?

How do the balance on goods and services, and the primary and secondary balances contribute to the overall current account balance?

How has this contribution changed over the past 5 years?

You may want to take note of your observations as they will become useful later in the course. Also, please save your sources of data as you will use them for other activities.

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Compare the capital and financial accounts across different presentations of the balance of payments of your country (for example, from the IMF BOP Statistical Yearbook 2012 or from the central bank of your country; possibly using the same sources of data that you used in the previous activity--use the standard presentation of the BOP, do not use the analytic presentation yet, the difference will be explained later on, in the first video of “The Basics of External Sector Analysis”).

· Are they structured in the same way?

· Do they show the same numbers? Are the balances on the capital and the financial accounts the same? Are reserve assets the same? Are net errors and omissions the same?

Let us now keep building familiarity with external sector developments in your country.

· Look at the most recent year. In case the current account was in deficit, how has your country financed such a deficit, by selling assets or by borrowing, or both? In case your country experienced a current account surplus, how has it used such surplus, to acquire assets or reduce liabilities? How has this changed over time, say in the past five years?

· Is your country receiving direct investment flows? That is, how large is direct investment, net incurrence of liabilities? How about portfolio investment, net incurrence of liabilities?

· Has your country accumulated reserves or lost reserves in the most recent year? How about over the past five years?

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Look again at the BOP of your country, preferably an analytic presentation. Find or compute the all the balances (on goods and services, primary and secondary, current, etc.) as a percent of GDP (the IMF Data Mapper likely has most of these data—a video in the Introduction explains how to access and use this tool). As discussed, this provides a better sense of your country external position relative to the size of the economy. Can you describe the external sector developments of your country?

· Has the current account improved or deteriorated in the past 5 years? What balance (within the current account) has contributed most to this development?

· Has the country been a net lender or borrower? Have your country accumulated or lost reserves over time?

Now, turn back to real sector data for your country, specifically saving and investment.

· Can you reconcile the developments in savings and investments to the development in the current account? (you will have to compute saving and investment in percent of GDP)

Finally, find data about the current account balance of countries similar to yours (the IMF Data Mapper will be very useful to this purpose). To find countries similar to yours, you may look at neighboring countries, or countries of a similar income level, or countries the economy of which has a similar structure (for example, if your country is an exporter of oil or other commodities you may want to look at other exporters of oil or commodities; if your country is a small open economy you may want to look at other small open economies).

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Using the IIP and BOP of your country construct the following indicators, if data are available (the IMF Data Mapper likely has most of these data):

· Total external assets and liabilities in percent of GDP

· Total external debt in percent of GDP (possibly, divided by private and public or government debt)

· Reserves in months of imports of goods and services (for the most recent year you may use the imports of goods and services of the same year)

· Reserves in percent of short term debt at remaining maturity

Consider now the evolution of these indicators over time.

· How have these indicators evolved over the past five years?

· Is any of these developments suggesting a build up or attenuation of external risks and vulnerabilities?

Finally, look again at the group of countries that you considered in the previous ACTIVITY.

· How does your country compare to other countries?

· Has your country experienced changes that are different from those experienced by other countries?

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Using the IMF Data Mapper or any other source of data, find the exchange rate of your country vis-à-vis the US dollar (or vis-à-vis some other currency that is relevant for your country) and the real effective exchange rate.

· Has your national currency appreciated or depreciated over time in nominal terms? How about in real terms?

· What explains the real appreciation/depreciation? How high is inflation in your country?

· Is there any link between exchange rate developments and the external sector developments in your country?

Indian Economy and Development: Assignment - 1

GDP of the Country

Visit the website of the ministry of finance, or the central bank, or the national institute of statistics of your country and search for GDP data (you may also find such data on the IMF website, or the website of other international organizations, such as the World Bank or the OECD).

How much is GDP in your country?

If available, check the sectoral composition of GDP (that is, using the production approach). What are the three sectors that contribute the most to GDP in your country? What share of GDP do they contribute to?

What is the composition of GDP according to the expenditure approach? How large are consumption and investment as a share of GDP?

Please, write a short paragraph summarizing your findings.

Saving Investment of the Country

Go back to GDP data for your country.

Compute GNI and GNDI in the past 5 years. Are these very different from GDP? How much larger/smaller is GNDI relative to GDP (in percent of GDP)?

Compute absorption, saving, and investment in percent of GDP over the past 5 years and describe the evolution of national saving and investment. What do you observe? Has saving increased or decreased? How about investment?

Find GDP data of countries similar to yours (the IMF Data Mapper will be very useful for this purpose—a video in the Introduction explains how to access and use this tool). These can be neighboring countries, or countries of a similar GDP level, or countries the economy of which has a similar structure (for example, if your country is an exporter of oil or other commodities you may want to look at other exporters of oil or commodities; if your country is a small open economy you may want to look at other small open economies).

How do your country’s saving and investment (in percent of GDP) compare with those of peer countries?

How have these evolved over the past 5 years in peer countries?

Please, write a short paragraph summarizing your finding.

Growth and Inflation

Find out what real growth and inflation have been in your country in the past 5 years.

What has been the growth performance over the past 5 years? Has growth increased, decreased, or remained broadly the same?

What about inflation? How does this relate, if at all, with the growth performance over the same period? Has your country been experiencing a positive or a negative output gap over this period?
What factors are attributed, in the economic debate of your country, to your country's growth performance and inflation?

Compare growth and inflation of your country to that of other countries, in particular major trading partners. Check if there is any commonality between them.

Please, write a short paragraph summarizing your findings.

Contribution to GDP Growth:

Find data on the expenditure components of GDP for your country.

What are the share of consumption, investments, exports, and imports to GDP? How have these evolved over the past 5 years?

How much did consumption, investments, exports, and imports grow during the past 5 years? What can help explain the development in consumption, investment, exports and imports in your country, over the past 5 years?

Which, among consumption, investment, exports, and imports, contributed the most to GDP growth over the past five years?

Please, write a short paragraph summarizing your findings:

Report Card: India's Banking Crisis

//17 Nov 2013

“In the last 13 years, banks have written off 1 lakh crore and 95% of these are large loans. Everyone talks of the farm loan write-off, but it is the medium and large enterprises segment that has a 50% share in NPAs,” said Chakrabarty.

Chakrabarty also raised the issue of restructured loans—advances where potential defaulters are given more time to repay without being called defaulters. “Restructuring of loans with retrospective effect has killed credit quality in banks,” he said. He warned banks that the leeway might not be available in future.

RBI numbers showed that the banks added Rs 4,94,836 crore to their bad loans between 2007 and 2013. During the same period, they reduced NPAs to the extent of Rs 3,50,332 crore. This was possible because loans worth Rs 1,41,295 crore were written off and another Rs 90,887 crore were upgraded to repaying loans and Rs 1,18,149 crore was recovered from defaulters. According to Chakrabarty, after a technical write-off, there is no incentive to pursue recovery.//

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/Rs-1-lakh-crore-bad-loans-of-corporates-written-off-RBI/articleshow/25905990.cms

//16 May 2014

Modi ended his victory speech with another consensual message, according to a translation from the Hindustan Times.

I hope all political parties will cooperate with me in running the country: #Modi in Vadodara 
#LSpolls #Verdict2014

Sarkaryavah Suresh Joshi, general secretary of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), said the group would offer advice to its its alumnus Narendra Modi, but would not seek to impose its agenda on his government.
"Any government which is run by remote control is not good for democracy," Joshi said at the RSS's headquarters in the city of Nagpur in the western state of Maharashtra.

RSS Spokesperson Rajeev Tuli confirmed this afternoon that the organisation was "told to mobilize and was completely focused on 100% polling" i.e. making sure that voters voted.

"In recently held Lok Sabha elections, Bharat [the word the RSS use to describe the Indian nation in a broad civilisational sense] presented an amazing example of healthy democracy to the world, which is matter if great pride for us. We are also glad that the process of electioneering by and large was peaceful, restrained and led to the awakening of masses like never before."//

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/16/india-election-2014-results-live

//07 JUL 2014

Chakrabarty and Malla are expected to join the board of Indiabulls Housing Finance after the approval from shareholders. The annual general meeting of the company is scheduled for August.

Indiabulls Housing Finance was originally a wholly-owned subsidiary of Indiabulls Financial Services. In early 2013, there was a reverse merger of the financial services company with the housing finance company. IBHFL posted a net profit of Rs 1,509 crore for the period ended March 2014 and its shares closed at Rs 372.35 at the BSE on Friday.//

https://m.economictimes.com/kc-chakrabarty-to-join-indiabulls-housing-finance-as-independent-director/articleshow/37928333.cms

//12 Feb 2016

WHAT HAPPENS TO THE ‘ASSET’?

But this write-off does not mean that the bank will not try to recover money from you. They might  either try to continue to recover the money themselves or sell your loan to a recovery company. Your debt has been written off from a creditor’s book but not from its memory. You continue to owe them money.

HOW DOES IT HELP THE BANK TO REGISTER A LOSS?

So what advantages does a bank have in writing off your loan if it still intends to pursue you to recover it? One, it gives a true and fair picture of the ‘assets’ that are making money. After all, there is no point in having a huge asset base that doesn’t give any returns. And two, by writing off the loan the bank gets a tax break on the losses incurred.//

https://wap.business-standard.com/article-amp/finance/5-things-you-need-to-know-about-bank-write-offs-116021200192_1.html

//09 May 2016

More importantly, bankers’ attempts to blame the mammoth bad loans on the absence of a bankruptcy law is also disingenuous, given the flaws in the draft Bill; in fact, unless corrected, that legislation too will go the way of the SARFAESI Act which had been touted as the solution to bad loans. While the case has been adjourned to 19th July, the key issue today is to have a committee that will put facts and solutions on the table.

According to one estimate, PSBs need equity capital injection of Rs2.4 lakh crore by 2018 to meet the Basel-III norms; this is not going to be raised through a sale of equity to the public, unless their financial performance improves dramatically.

However, one crucial issue is missing from this list. It is the massive ‘technical write-offs’ by PSBs which were dubbed the “biggest scandal of the century” by Dr KC Chakrabarty (ex-deputy governor of RBI and ex-chairman of Bank of Baroda and Punjab National Bank), in response to a query by Indian Express on the bad loan issue.

In the past two decades, banks have written off several lakh crores of rupees as technical write-offs. The Indian Express reported that Rs1,14,000 crore has been written off in the past three years alone. //

https://www.moneylife.in/article/loan-write-offs-is-the-biggest-scandal-of-the-century/46846.html

//02 Sep 2016

A whopping Rs 1.14 lakh crore of bad loans have been written off by 27 public sector banks (PSBs) during FY 2012-15, with the last fiscal alone witnessing a steep 53 per cent rise in write-offs as part of the balance sheet clean-up.
For the fiscal ended March 2015, public sector banks have written off loans amounting to Rs 52,542 crore, an increase of 52.6 per cent over the previous fiscal, as per the RBI data.

RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan recently announced a March 2017 deadline for banks to clean up their balance sheets, which are plagued by high incidence of bad assets.
While Mr. Rajan had assured that enough capital is available for public sector banks, he cautioned that some of the banks may witness erosion of profitability in the short run due to cleaning of books.//

https://www.thehindu.com/business/rs-114-lakh-crores-bad-loans-written-off-during-201215/article8209823.ece

//26 Feb 2018

Indian banks have restructured over Rs6 lakh crore (over $93 billion) in bad loans in the last three years, and unearthed over $1.8 billion of fraud in the last three weeks. And if you thought it couldn’t get worse, here’s more.

Nearly 30% of all bad loans in India may not be recovered—ever.

With about Rs10 lakh crore in non-performing assets (NPA), India was ranked fifth among 39 major economies for the most bad loans by Care Ratings in December 2017. Nearly 88% of this toxic pile belongs to state-run banks.

“Recapitalisation is required in any case. There is already a stock of NPAs and banks need money. The recapitalisation package is required to trigger reforms at PSU (public sector undertaking) banks,” Debroy said.

There is a growing clamour for the privatisation of government banks. Proponents of such a move include chief economic advisor Arvind Subramanian, industry lobby Assocham, and industrialist Adi Godrej, among many others.//

https://qz.com/india/1215364/modi-advisor-bibek-debroy-india-will-write-off-about-46-5-billion-of-bad-loans/

//22 May 2019

“If someone is victorious, it is India,” PM Narendra Modi said. “If someone is victorious, it is democracy. If someone is victorious, it is the electorate.”

Striking a populist tone and evoking mythical Hindu figures engaged in war, Mr. Modi framed the elections as a victory by and for ordinary Indians, over those who write off the poor and downtrodden. At the end of the battle, he said, was “the guarantee of a bright future for India.”

“Some are saying, ‘Modi, Modi, Modi.’” he said. “This is not Modi’s victory. This is the victory of the expectations of the honest citizen of this country.”

Before the election, most analysts predicted that the B.J.P. would lose seats overall, mostly because of dissatisfaction with the economy.

But that was before tensions with Pakistan handed Mr. Modi an issue he could command. He campaigned heavily on national security and on a forceful foreign policy, and it's now clear that played well among India’s 900 million registered voters.//

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/22/world/asia/india-election-results.html

//02 Aug 2019

Bad loans at banks reduced from their peak of 11.5 per cent in March 2018 to 9.3 per cent in March 2019, with rate of accretion of fresh NPAs dropping to 3.7 per cent in March 2019 compared with 7.4 per cent the previous fiscal, CRISIL data showed. Asset quality ratios improved for both, although higher write-offs too were partially responsible for the same.

“Slippages have been on the wane since last fiscal, with the rate of accretion of fresh NPAs halving in fiscal 2019; this is expected to drop further to ~3.2 per cent in fiscal 2020,” CRISIL said in a report.

However, the worry for the banking system is a gradual fall in recovery from accounts stuck in the bankruptcy process. Banks have recognised nearly Rs 17 lakh crore of stressed loans as NPAs since fiscal 2016, but recovery from these accounts have been very slow.

Former RBI Governor Urjit Patel in a recent lecture, his first after abruptly leaving the central bank in December last year, said that the dismal state of Indian banking was a failure on the part of banks, the government and the regulator until 2014 that got banks into the current bad-loan mess and the resultant low capital buffers.

The deterioration in asset quality can be traced to the credit boom of 2006-2011 when lending grew at an average rate of over 20 per cent.//

https://m.economictimes.com/markets/stocks/news/record-rs-2-54-lakh-crore-bad-loan-write-off-gives-a-facelift-to-banks-npa-profile/articleshow/70492369.cms

//20 Jan 2020

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s flagship MUDRA scheme that aims to provide easy credit without collateral to small and micro-enterprises and, issues loans up to Rs 10 lakh under different categories, has generated an NPA of over Rs 17,000 crore in about four-and-a-half years since its inception, besides a loan write-off of about Rs 2 lakh crore.

To address such concerns, the RBI has introduced requirements such as liquidity coverage ratio and stress tests on the lines of banks, but economists including Modi government’s first chief Economic Advisor Arvind Subramanian have been demanding an asset quality review for NBFCs similar to banks.//

https://www.deccanherald.com/business/business-news/indian-banks-sitting-on-npa-cluster-bomb-ready-to-explode-after-march-31-796181.html


//07 Mar 2020

One of the biggest losers in case the RBI’s restructuring scheme for Yes Bank goes through will be the additional tier-I bond holders, who have bets totalling Rs 10,800 crore on the lender.

The investors in such instruments typically include mutual fund houses and bank treasuries, experts said.

“This is the first time in the history of Indian banks that tier-I bonds are being written down... the investors have to take a hit on both principal and the balance interest payments,” said Acuite Ratings president Suman Chowdhury. //

https://www.telegraphindia.com/business/yes-bank-tier-i-bonds-writeoff-by-rbi-hits-mutuals/cid/1751642

//10 March 2020

“Rana Kapoor, Director of Yes Bank Limited obtained undue pecuniary advantage from DHFL in the matter of investment in the debentures of DHFL by Yes Bank, through companies held by his wife and daughters,” the CBI FIR states. “It is also apprehended that Rana Kapoor has similarly (abused) his official position in several other transactions and obtained illegal kickbacks directly or indirectly through entities controlled by him or his family members.”//

https://indianexpress.com/article/india/yes-bank-crisis-cbi-searches-rana-kapoors-house-firm-linked-to-family-6307462/

//16 Mar 2020

When minister of state for finance Anurag Thakur started replying to the question, Gandhi and Congress leader in the House Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury protested, saying Union finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman, who was present in the House, should reply.

"The list of all bank defaulters above Rs 25 lakh loans is available on the website of the Central Information Commission. I have the list and if the Chair allows me, I am ready to table it in the House," he said.

Thakur said Rs 4.8 lakh crore defaulting loans were recovered ever since the Modi government came and a number of steps were taken, including enactment of the Fugitive Economic Offenders Act, so that the guilty can be punished.

He said there were many instances of irregularities during the UPA government and that include forcing bankers to buy paintings at exorbitant price -- in an indirect reference to Rahul Gandhi's sister Priyanka Vadra selling a painting to the Yes Bank founder Rana Kapoor, who was recently arrested.

The speaker then ended the Question Hour and moved to the next item of the agenda.

With this, Gandhi strongly protested saying he should be given the opportunity to ask the second supplementary as is the norm.//

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/rahul-gandhi-asks-government-to-name-50-top-wilful-defaulters/articleshow/74648992.cms

//17 Mar 2020

The ruling side said that the names of wilful defaulters had already been put up on the official website and also hit back at Gandhi by indirectly referring to the controversy over the sale of an MF Husain painting of his father, late PM Rajiv Gandhi, by his sister, Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, to the arrested Yes Bank founder Rana Kapoor. Later, Gandhi inadvertently referred to his “question about 500 top defaulters” at a press conference.

Minister of state for finance Anurag Thakur started answering by quoting data to argue that defaults and frauds pertaining to funds advanced by banks had come down during the Modi regime as compared to the erstwhile Congress-led UPA government.//

https://m.economictimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/lok-sabha-witnesses-noisy-scenes-over-rahul-gandhis-question/articleshow/74649755.cms

//27 Apr 2020

"I want to clarify that the winding up of the funds does not mean a write–off and investors will receive their money over a period of time depending on how we are able to liquidate maturities and the coupons we receive, etc.," Sapre said.

He added that the schemes could not generate cash-to-fund redemptions after the lockdown was extended as it drastically reduced the risk appetite of the market.

Sapre said that given the size of its Indian business, it was not possible for the fund house to provide liquidity support.//

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/winding-up-of-funds-does-not-mean-write-off-of-investor-money-says-franklin-templeton-indias-sanjay-sapre-5192171.html

//28 Apr 2020

The write-offs are technical or prudential in nature, which means the banks have made 100 per cent provisions against the loans. However, this doesn’t mean the banks have given up the right to recover the loans. It also doesn’t mean that banks have written off the entire loan, as some loans have been taken against security, which either can be or already has been recovered.

As  and when they recover the money, it directly adds up to banks’ profits, and the provisions also come down by that extent.

RBI maintains records of loans above Rs 5 crore given by banks, both fund and non-fund based, in its Central Repository of Information on Large Credits (CRILC) database. If any entity defaults, the RBI captures it.//

https://www.business-standard.com/article/finance/banks-wrote-off-rs-68-607-cr-debt-of-top-50-willful-defaulters-rbi-120042801692_1.html

//28 Apr 2020

"The RBI does not write off any loan since they do not lend to non govt or non bank entities, and this headline is not correct.That is a complete misunderstanding of how banking works. RBI doesn't give loans to companies, it lends only to banks and government. The author instead of saying banks have technically written off loans as per information provided under RTI by RBI, has said RBI has written off loans"

 "Also, a technical write off is when a bank provides for dues when repayment is delayed. It doesn't mean that loan can't be recovered. Should banks recover the default amount, it is added to their profit and loss account", he explained.//

https://www.boomlive.in/fake-news/rbi-denies-reports-of-writing-off-loans-worth-rs-68000-crore-7864?fbclid=IwAR1Y7Aq57VS2FBXMtBD4WtwqDf5PyuymyPG-JeqBeuBCejEpqvLKancSx9E

COVID-19 Economic Impact: Wayout FORCE 1.0

//26 Apr 2020
The 43-page document contains a slew of proposals. One of them suggests that those earning more than a crore a year should be taxed at 40 per cent. This would be 10 per cent higher than the current 30 per cent. Since taxpayers with high net-worth have to pay taxes over and above their income tax liability, their tax burden as per the 40 per cent proposal would be close to 56 per cent. This means they would be paying more than half their income as taxes.

Now, Chairman of the Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT) has been directed to seek an explanation from these officers for writing such "ill-conceived views" in public without having any authority to do so. After criticising the suggestions, the CBDT has launched an inquiry against the officers claiming that "suggestions on official matters is a violation of extant Conduct Rules."

In an attempt to completely distance itself from the suggestions by the IRS officers, the central government added, "It is not even part of their duty to prepare such a report. It is prima-facie an act of indiscipline and violation of conduct rules which specifically prohibits officers to go to media with their personal views on official matters without taking prior sanction or the permission of the government."//

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/centre-rushes-in-to-junk-irs-officers-report-proposing-wealth-tax-cbdt-orders-inquiry-1671411-2020-04-26

//26 Apr 2020

"There is some report circulating on social media regarding suggestions by a few IRS officers on tackling Covid-19 situation. It is unequivocally stated that CBDT never asked IRS Association or these officers to prepare such a report," it wrote.

"No permission was sought by the officers before going public with their personal views and suggestions, which is a violation of extant Conduct Rules," it wrote.//

https://www.freepressjournal.in/business/now-it-department-pulls-up-irs-officers-over-force-report-on-income-tax-increase-says-cbdt-never-asked-for-a-report

//27 Apr 2020

According to the tax department, this action has been taken by the department in view of their role and complicity in the preparation of the report named 'FORCE' which was being circulated and widely covered in media since April 25, 2020. "The report created panic and tax policy uncertainty in the already stressed economic conditions in the country," says sources in the department.

Government sources further said that these senior officers, despite having more than 30 years of service, failed to exercise due care and went on to misguide 50 young officers. Government would have definitely given due consideration to suggestions made by the young officers. However, instead of sending the recommendations to the government through official channel, these Principal Commissioner-rank officials misguided their juniors and went public with report, which created panic and tax policy uncertainty in the already stressed economic conditions in the country, they said.//

https://www.businesstoday.in/current/economy-politics/chargesheets-against-3-irs-officers-for-report-suggesting-super-rich-tax/story/402178.html

COVID-19: Way out Medicine or Vaccine?

//13.03.2020
Experts believe that viruses are always mutating, especially RNA viruses like COVID-19.   When someone is infected with the coronavirus, it replicates in their respiratory tract. Every time it does, around half-a-dozen genetic mutations occur.

Scientists from Peking University in China, after studying virus isolates taken from 103 cases of coronavirus sometime back, had found common mutations aocations on the genome. The team identified two types of the virus based on differences in the genome at two regions — 72 were considered to be the “L type” and 29 as  “S type”.//

https://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/2020/mar/13/icmr-to-study-the-extent-of-mutation-in-coronaviruses-2116046.amp


//03 May 2020

According to the report, in its letter last month, NGO Atulya Ganga had cited the presence of a ‘ninja virus’’ called a bacteriophage, in Ganga’s water that could cure coronavirus. A bacteriophage is a special type of virus that eats harmful bacteria, the letter said. Atulya Ganga founder, Major Manoj Keshwar (retd) said that there are scientific references to suggest that these phages have anti-microbial properties and could potentially destroy bacteria.

The NGO had asked the government on 3 April to conduct a study on the possibility of this virus acting as a cure. It had also sent a copy each to the ministry and the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO), according to The Print’s own admission.//

https://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/2020/may/03/nmcg-sends-proposal-to-icmr-to-test-holy-ganga-water-for-use-in-covid-19-treatment-2138690.html

Introspect: Learning, Education, Degree, Employability?

//20 Aug 2018

When I was learning about accounting in classes it was all on paper and theoretical. But when I started my first industry job and my boss told me to go make a journal entry and record transactions in the accounting system, I panicked. I’d never done that. I thought ‘What button do I push and what if I mess it up?’

That fear stuck with me. And it’s why I want my students to walk out of here having used an accounting system to make journal entries and knowing they aren’t going to break the system. I want them to have some confidence walking into their first job.

They also learn big picture things, like how to have an innovative mindset—which is just an ability to adapt to change. This allows them to see how the profession changes, the software changes, the industry changes—and not get stuck in a rut. By using the software—which sometimes updates in the middle of the semester, and doesn't always work the way we think it will—they learn to troubleshoot and adapt to change without getting frustrated.//

https://www.edsurge.com/news/2018-08-20-how-to-bridge-theory-and-practice-in-the-classroom-with-a-real-world-tech-twist

//13 Mar 2020

 “By getting a degree alone, you cannot get a job. One must have skills in their area of education and complete interest on the job they are doing. Most importantly, students must be aware of employability,” said PV Vasanthakumar, convener HR committee,  Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) on 12 March.//

https://www.newindianexpress.com/states/tamil-nadu/2020/mar/13/many-students-do-not-know-to-apply-theory-they-have-learnt-2116008.html

COVID-19: Impact on Global Economy

//13 March 2020

Italy on 11 March, announced  measures worth as much as 25 billion euros ($28 billion) to cushion the blow of the pandemic. Those include help for companies whose turnover has plunged, a moratorium on some mortgage payments, and support for workers facing temporary layoffs and parents who must stay home to take care of kids when schools are closed.

On 12 March, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde unveiled her own stimulus package, but held off on cutting interest rates. When Lagarde said, “We are not here to close spreads,” the Italian bond market plunged and yields shot up by the most ever. By the end of the day, U.S. stocks had registered their worst sell-off since 1987's Black Monday.

The outbreak that started in China in January has infected more than 130,000 people in at least 114 countries and territories, shuttering cities, disrupting trade and supply chains, and shaking financial markets. With Europe facing the prospect of a recession, Italy is at the center of it all. The country’s public debt stands at about 2.4 trillion euros, almost 135% of gross domestic product.

Banks in other EU countries hold almost 450 billion euros in Italian sovereign debt. If the country goes under and those Italian holdings collapse in value, it would shake the foundations of the EU banking system. European banks are worried the crisis could even turn into a global meltdown like 2008. Their concern is that a virus-induced shutdown could spark a wave of defaults among the small and medium-sized enterprises that make up the economic backbone of countries such as Italy and Germany. That would wipe out profits at the lenders and potentially eat up much of the capital that regulators require them to set aside for a rainy day.//

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-03-13/italy-s-coronavirus-nightmare-offers-a-preview-of-what-s-coming


//14 Apr 2020

With the number of coronavirus infections nearing 2m globally, the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday it expected the global economy to shrink by 3.0% in 2020 – with rich western economies set to contract by 6.1% - in the steepest downturn since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

The European commission urged EU states to develop a uniform exit strategy that was “well coordinated between the member states, to avoid negative spillover effects,” saying that failure to do so could result in new spikes of the epidemic.

Lockdown exit plans

Exit plans begun

Italy: GDP to fall by 9.1% in 2020, IMF predicts. Bookshops, laundries, stationers, children’s clothes stores reopened in some regions; forestry workers and IT manufacturers back at work. Full lockdown set to end 4 May

Spain: GDP to fall by 9.1% in 2020, IMF predicts. Bookshops, laundries, stationers, children’s clothes stores reopened in some regions; forestry workers and IT manufacturers back at work. Full lockdown set to end 4 May

Austria: 7% fall. Public parks, small shops, DIY and gardening supply stores reopened with strict distancing rules and masks. If virus under control, all stores to reopen on 2 May, restaurants in mid-May.

Denmark: 6.5% fall. Daycare centres and primary schools to reopen 15 April, Restaurants, cafes closed and gatherings of more than 10 people banned until 10 May, larger gatherings until August.

France: 7.2%fall. Lockdown extended until 11 May, after which creches and schools to reopen progressively. Bars, restaurants, cinemas to stay closed; large public gatherings banned until at least mid-July.//

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/14/eu-countries-coronavirus-lockdown-italy-spain

//17 Mar 2020

Global growth may see a 0.4-1.5 per cent erosion, but RBI governor Shaktikannta Das refused to quantify the actual impact on India. As it is, the Indian economy needs no fresh trouble having sunk to a six-year low of 4.7 per cent just last December.

The current slowdown partly worsened due to the government’s rather belated admission of the abundant weakness in the economy, but Das defended that this time it’s different. Efforts were being mounted by the government on war-footing, as Covid-19 could impact India directly through trade channels, in which exposure to China is relatively high, he reasoned.//

https://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/2020/mar/17/coronavirus-could-dent-economy-admits-rbi-governor-shaktikannta-das-2117511.amp