Report Card: India's Banking Crisis

//17 Nov 2013

“In the last 13 years, banks have written off 1 lakh crore and 95% of these are large loans. Everyone talks of the farm loan write-off, but it is the medium and large enterprises segment that has a 50% share in NPAs,” said Chakrabarty.

Chakrabarty also raised the issue of restructured loans—advances where potential defaulters are given more time to repay without being called defaulters. “Restructuring of loans with retrospective effect has killed credit quality in banks,” he said. He warned banks that the leeway might not be available in future.

RBI numbers showed that the banks added Rs 4,94,836 crore to their bad loans between 2007 and 2013. During the same period, they reduced NPAs to the extent of Rs 3,50,332 crore. This was possible because loans worth Rs 1,41,295 crore were written off and another Rs 90,887 crore were upgraded to repaying loans and Rs 1,18,149 crore was recovered from defaulters. According to Chakrabarty, after a technical write-off, there is no incentive to pursue recovery.//

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/Rs-1-lakh-crore-bad-loans-of-corporates-written-off-RBI/articleshow/25905990.cms

//16 May 2014

Modi ended his victory speech with another consensual message, according to a translation from the Hindustan Times.

I hope all political parties will cooperate with me in running the country: #Modi in Vadodara 
#LSpolls #Verdict2014

Sarkaryavah Suresh Joshi, general secretary of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), said the group would offer advice to its its alumnus Narendra Modi, but would not seek to impose its agenda on his government.
"Any government which is run by remote control is not good for democracy," Joshi said at the RSS's headquarters in the city of Nagpur in the western state of Maharashtra.

RSS Spokesperson Rajeev Tuli confirmed this afternoon that the organisation was "told to mobilize and was completely focused on 100% polling" i.e. making sure that voters voted.

"In recently held Lok Sabha elections, Bharat [the word the RSS use to describe the Indian nation in a broad civilisational sense] presented an amazing example of healthy democracy to the world, which is matter if great pride for us. We are also glad that the process of electioneering by and large was peaceful, restrained and led to the awakening of masses like never before."//

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/16/india-election-2014-results-live

//07 JUL 2014

Chakrabarty and Malla are expected to join the board of Indiabulls Housing Finance after the approval from shareholders. The annual general meeting of the company is scheduled for August.

Indiabulls Housing Finance was originally a wholly-owned subsidiary of Indiabulls Financial Services. In early 2013, there was a reverse merger of the financial services company with the housing finance company. IBHFL posted a net profit of Rs 1,509 crore for the period ended March 2014 and its shares closed at Rs 372.35 at the BSE on Friday.//

https://m.economictimes.com/kc-chakrabarty-to-join-indiabulls-housing-finance-as-independent-director/articleshow/37928333.cms

//12 Feb 2016

WHAT HAPPENS TO THE ‘ASSET’?

But this write-off does not mean that the bank will not try to recover money from you. They might  either try to continue to recover the money themselves or sell your loan to a recovery company. Your debt has been written off from a creditor’s book but not from its memory. You continue to owe them money.

HOW DOES IT HELP THE BANK TO REGISTER A LOSS?

So what advantages does a bank have in writing off your loan if it still intends to pursue you to recover it? One, it gives a true and fair picture of the ‘assets’ that are making money. After all, there is no point in having a huge asset base that doesn’t give any returns. And two, by writing off the loan the bank gets a tax break on the losses incurred.//

https://wap.business-standard.com/article-amp/finance/5-things-you-need-to-know-about-bank-write-offs-116021200192_1.html

//09 May 2016

More importantly, bankers’ attempts to blame the mammoth bad loans on the absence of a bankruptcy law is also disingenuous, given the flaws in the draft Bill; in fact, unless corrected, that legislation too will go the way of the SARFAESI Act which had been touted as the solution to bad loans. While the case has been adjourned to 19th July, the key issue today is to have a committee that will put facts and solutions on the table.

According to one estimate, PSBs need equity capital injection of Rs2.4 lakh crore by 2018 to meet the Basel-III norms; this is not going to be raised through a sale of equity to the public, unless their financial performance improves dramatically.

However, one crucial issue is missing from this list. It is the massive ‘technical write-offs’ by PSBs which were dubbed the “biggest scandal of the century” by Dr KC Chakrabarty (ex-deputy governor of RBI and ex-chairman of Bank of Baroda and Punjab National Bank), in response to a query by Indian Express on the bad loan issue.

In the past two decades, banks have written off several lakh crores of rupees as technical write-offs. The Indian Express reported that Rs1,14,000 crore has been written off in the past three years alone. //

https://www.moneylife.in/article/loan-write-offs-is-the-biggest-scandal-of-the-century/46846.html

//02 Sep 2016

A whopping Rs 1.14 lakh crore of bad loans have been written off by 27 public sector banks (PSBs) during FY 2012-15, with the last fiscal alone witnessing a steep 53 per cent rise in write-offs as part of the balance sheet clean-up.
For the fiscal ended March 2015, public sector banks have written off loans amounting to Rs 52,542 crore, an increase of 52.6 per cent over the previous fiscal, as per the RBI data.

RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan recently announced a March 2017 deadline for banks to clean up their balance sheets, which are plagued by high incidence of bad assets.
While Mr. Rajan had assured that enough capital is available for public sector banks, he cautioned that some of the banks may witness erosion of profitability in the short run due to cleaning of books.//

https://www.thehindu.com/business/rs-114-lakh-crores-bad-loans-written-off-during-201215/article8209823.ece

//26 Feb 2018

Indian banks have restructured over Rs6 lakh crore (over $93 billion) in bad loans in the last three years, and unearthed over $1.8 billion of fraud in the last three weeks. And if you thought it couldn’t get worse, here’s more.

Nearly 30% of all bad loans in India may not be recovered—ever.

With about Rs10 lakh crore in non-performing assets (NPA), India was ranked fifth among 39 major economies for the most bad loans by Care Ratings in December 2017. Nearly 88% of this toxic pile belongs to state-run banks.

“Recapitalisation is required in any case. There is already a stock of NPAs and banks need money. The recapitalisation package is required to trigger reforms at PSU (public sector undertaking) banks,” Debroy said.

There is a growing clamour for the privatisation of government banks. Proponents of such a move include chief economic advisor Arvind Subramanian, industry lobby Assocham, and industrialist Adi Godrej, among many others.//

https://qz.com/india/1215364/modi-advisor-bibek-debroy-india-will-write-off-about-46-5-billion-of-bad-loans/

//22 May 2019

“If someone is victorious, it is India,” PM Narendra Modi said. “If someone is victorious, it is democracy. If someone is victorious, it is the electorate.”

Striking a populist tone and evoking mythical Hindu figures engaged in war, Mr. Modi framed the elections as a victory by and for ordinary Indians, over those who write off the poor and downtrodden. At the end of the battle, he said, was “the guarantee of a bright future for India.”

“Some are saying, ‘Modi, Modi, Modi.’” he said. “This is not Modi’s victory. This is the victory of the expectations of the honest citizen of this country.”

Before the election, most analysts predicted that the B.J.P. would lose seats overall, mostly because of dissatisfaction with the economy.

But that was before tensions with Pakistan handed Mr. Modi an issue he could command. He campaigned heavily on national security and on a forceful foreign policy, and it's now clear that played well among India’s 900 million registered voters.//

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/22/world/asia/india-election-results.html

//02 Aug 2019

Bad loans at banks reduced from their peak of 11.5 per cent in March 2018 to 9.3 per cent in March 2019, with rate of accretion of fresh NPAs dropping to 3.7 per cent in March 2019 compared with 7.4 per cent the previous fiscal, CRISIL data showed. Asset quality ratios improved for both, although higher write-offs too were partially responsible for the same.

“Slippages have been on the wane since last fiscal, with the rate of accretion of fresh NPAs halving in fiscal 2019; this is expected to drop further to ~3.2 per cent in fiscal 2020,” CRISIL said in a report.

However, the worry for the banking system is a gradual fall in recovery from accounts stuck in the bankruptcy process. Banks have recognised nearly Rs 17 lakh crore of stressed loans as NPAs since fiscal 2016, but recovery from these accounts have been very slow.

Former RBI Governor Urjit Patel in a recent lecture, his first after abruptly leaving the central bank in December last year, said that the dismal state of Indian banking was a failure on the part of banks, the government and the regulator until 2014 that got banks into the current bad-loan mess and the resultant low capital buffers.

The deterioration in asset quality can be traced to the credit boom of 2006-2011 when lending grew at an average rate of over 20 per cent.//

https://m.economictimes.com/markets/stocks/news/record-rs-2-54-lakh-crore-bad-loan-write-off-gives-a-facelift-to-banks-npa-profile/articleshow/70492369.cms

//20 Jan 2020

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s flagship MUDRA scheme that aims to provide easy credit without collateral to small and micro-enterprises and, issues loans up to Rs 10 lakh under different categories, has generated an NPA of over Rs 17,000 crore in about four-and-a-half years since its inception, besides a loan write-off of about Rs 2 lakh crore.

To address such concerns, the RBI has introduced requirements such as liquidity coverage ratio and stress tests on the lines of banks, but economists including Modi government’s first chief Economic Advisor Arvind Subramanian have been demanding an asset quality review for NBFCs similar to banks.//

https://www.deccanherald.com/business/business-news/indian-banks-sitting-on-npa-cluster-bomb-ready-to-explode-after-march-31-796181.html


//07 Mar 2020

One of the biggest losers in case the RBI’s restructuring scheme for Yes Bank goes through will be the additional tier-I bond holders, who have bets totalling Rs 10,800 crore on the lender.

The investors in such instruments typically include mutual fund houses and bank treasuries, experts said.

“This is the first time in the history of Indian banks that tier-I bonds are being written down... the investors have to take a hit on both principal and the balance interest payments,” said Acuite Ratings president Suman Chowdhury. //

https://www.telegraphindia.com/business/yes-bank-tier-i-bonds-writeoff-by-rbi-hits-mutuals/cid/1751642

//10 March 2020

“Rana Kapoor, Director of Yes Bank Limited obtained undue pecuniary advantage from DHFL in the matter of investment in the debentures of DHFL by Yes Bank, through companies held by his wife and daughters,” the CBI FIR states. “It is also apprehended that Rana Kapoor has similarly (abused) his official position in several other transactions and obtained illegal kickbacks directly or indirectly through entities controlled by him or his family members.”//

https://indianexpress.com/article/india/yes-bank-crisis-cbi-searches-rana-kapoors-house-firm-linked-to-family-6307462/

//16 Mar 2020

When minister of state for finance Anurag Thakur started replying to the question, Gandhi and Congress leader in the House Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury protested, saying Union finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman, who was present in the House, should reply.

"The list of all bank defaulters above Rs 25 lakh loans is available on the website of the Central Information Commission. I have the list and if the Chair allows me, I am ready to table it in the House," he said.

Thakur said Rs 4.8 lakh crore defaulting loans were recovered ever since the Modi government came and a number of steps were taken, including enactment of the Fugitive Economic Offenders Act, so that the guilty can be punished.

He said there were many instances of irregularities during the UPA government and that include forcing bankers to buy paintings at exorbitant price -- in an indirect reference to Rahul Gandhi's sister Priyanka Vadra selling a painting to the Yes Bank founder Rana Kapoor, who was recently arrested.

The speaker then ended the Question Hour and moved to the next item of the agenda.

With this, Gandhi strongly protested saying he should be given the opportunity to ask the second supplementary as is the norm.//

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/rahul-gandhi-asks-government-to-name-50-top-wilful-defaulters/articleshow/74648992.cms

//17 Mar 2020

The ruling side said that the names of wilful defaulters had already been put up on the official website and also hit back at Gandhi by indirectly referring to the controversy over the sale of an MF Husain painting of his father, late PM Rajiv Gandhi, by his sister, Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, to the arrested Yes Bank founder Rana Kapoor. Later, Gandhi inadvertently referred to his “question about 500 top defaulters” at a press conference.

Minister of state for finance Anurag Thakur started answering by quoting data to argue that defaults and frauds pertaining to funds advanced by banks had come down during the Modi regime as compared to the erstwhile Congress-led UPA government.//

https://m.economictimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/lok-sabha-witnesses-noisy-scenes-over-rahul-gandhis-question/articleshow/74649755.cms

//27 Apr 2020

"I want to clarify that the winding up of the funds does not mean a write–off and investors will receive their money over a period of time depending on how we are able to liquidate maturities and the coupons we receive, etc.," Sapre said.

He added that the schemes could not generate cash-to-fund redemptions after the lockdown was extended as it drastically reduced the risk appetite of the market.

Sapre said that given the size of its Indian business, it was not possible for the fund house to provide liquidity support.//

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/winding-up-of-funds-does-not-mean-write-off-of-investor-money-says-franklin-templeton-indias-sanjay-sapre-5192171.html

//28 Apr 2020

The write-offs are technical or prudential in nature, which means the banks have made 100 per cent provisions against the loans. However, this doesn’t mean the banks have given up the right to recover the loans. It also doesn’t mean that banks have written off the entire loan, as some loans have been taken against security, which either can be or already has been recovered.

As  and when they recover the money, it directly adds up to banks’ profits, and the provisions also come down by that extent.

RBI maintains records of loans above Rs 5 crore given by banks, both fund and non-fund based, in its Central Repository of Information on Large Credits (CRILC) database. If any entity defaults, the RBI captures it.//

https://www.business-standard.com/article/finance/banks-wrote-off-rs-68-607-cr-debt-of-top-50-willful-defaulters-rbi-120042801692_1.html

//28 Apr 2020

"The RBI does not write off any loan since they do not lend to non govt or non bank entities, and this headline is not correct.That is a complete misunderstanding of how banking works. RBI doesn't give loans to companies, it lends only to banks and government. The author instead of saying banks have technically written off loans as per information provided under RTI by RBI, has said RBI has written off loans"

 "Also, a technical write off is when a bank provides for dues when repayment is delayed. It doesn't mean that loan can't be recovered. Should banks recover the default amount, it is added to their profit and loss account", he explained.//

https://www.boomlive.in/fake-news/rbi-denies-reports-of-writing-off-loans-worth-rs-68000-crore-7864?fbclid=IwAR1Y7Aq57VS2FBXMtBD4WtwqDf5PyuymyPG-JeqBeuBCejEpqvLKancSx9E

COVID-19 Economic Impact: Wayout FORCE 1.0

//26 Apr 2020
The 43-page document contains a slew of proposals. One of them suggests that those earning more than a crore a year should be taxed at 40 per cent. This would be 10 per cent higher than the current 30 per cent. Since taxpayers with high net-worth have to pay taxes over and above their income tax liability, their tax burden as per the 40 per cent proposal would be close to 56 per cent. This means they would be paying more than half their income as taxes.

Now, Chairman of the Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT) has been directed to seek an explanation from these officers for writing such "ill-conceived views" in public without having any authority to do so. After criticising the suggestions, the CBDT has launched an inquiry against the officers claiming that "suggestions on official matters is a violation of extant Conduct Rules."

In an attempt to completely distance itself from the suggestions by the IRS officers, the central government added, "It is not even part of their duty to prepare such a report. It is prima-facie an act of indiscipline and violation of conduct rules which specifically prohibits officers to go to media with their personal views on official matters without taking prior sanction or the permission of the government."//

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/centre-rushes-in-to-junk-irs-officers-report-proposing-wealth-tax-cbdt-orders-inquiry-1671411-2020-04-26

//26 Apr 2020

"There is some report circulating on social media regarding suggestions by a few IRS officers on tackling Covid-19 situation. It is unequivocally stated that CBDT never asked IRS Association or these officers to prepare such a report," it wrote.

"No permission was sought by the officers before going public with their personal views and suggestions, which is a violation of extant Conduct Rules," it wrote.//

https://www.freepressjournal.in/business/now-it-department-pulls-up-irs-officers-over-force-report-on-income-tax-increase-says-cbdt-never-asked-for-a-report

//27 Apr 2020

According to the tax department, this action has been taken by the department in view of their role and complicity in the preparation of the report named 'FORCE' which was being circulated and widely covered in media since April 25, 2020. "The report created panic and tax policy uncertainty in the already stressed economic conditions in the country," says sources in the department.

Government sources further said that these senior officers, despite having more than 30 years of service, failed to exercise due care and went on to misguide 50 young officers. Government would have definitely given due consideration to suggestions made by the young officers. However, instead of sending the recommendations to the government through official channel, these Principal Commissioner-rank officials misguided their juniors and went public with report, which created panic and tax policy uncertainty in the already stressed economic conditions in the country, they said.//

https://www.businesstoday.in/current/economy-politics/chargesheets-against-3-irs-officers-for-report-suggesting-super-rich-tax/story/402178.html

COVID-19: Way out Medicine or Vaccine?

//13.03.2020
Experts believe that viruses are always mutating, especially RNA viruses like COVID-19.   When someone is infected with the coronavirus, it replicates in their respiratory tract. Every time it does, around half-a-dozen genetic mutations occur.

Scientists from Peking University in China, after studying virus isolates taken from 103 cases of coronavirus sometime back, had found common mutations aocations on the genome. The team identified two types of the virus based on differences in the genome at two regions — 72 were considered to be the “L type” and 29 as  “S type”.//

https://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/2020/mar/13/icmr-to-study-the-extent-of-mutation-in-coronaviruses-2116046.amp


//03 May 2020

According to the report, in its letter last month, NGO Atulya Ganga had cited the presence of a ‘ninja virus’’ called a bacteriophage, in Ganga’s water that could cure coronavirus. A bacteriophage is a special type of virus that eats harmful bacteria, the letter said. Atulya Ganga founder, Major Manoj Keshwar (retd) said that there are scientific references to suggest that these phages have anti-microbial properties and could potentially destroy bacteria.

The NGO had asked the government on 3 April to conduct a study on the possibility of this virus acting as a cure. It had also sent a copy each to the ministry and the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO), according to The Print’s own admission.//

https://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/2020/may/03/nmcg-sends-proposal-to-icmr-to-test-holy-ganga-water-for-use-in-covid-19-treatment-2138690.html

Introspect: Learning, Education, Degree, Employability?

//20 Aug 2018

When I was learning about accounting in classes it was all on paper and theoretical. But when I started my first industry job and my boss told me to go make a journal entry and record transactions in the accounting system, I panicked. I’d never done that. I thought ‘What button do I push and what if I mess it up?’

That fear stuck with me. And it’s why I want my students to walk out of here having used an accounting system to make journal entries and knowing they aren’t going to break the system. I want them to have some confidence walking into their first job.

They also learn big picture things, like how to have an innovative mindset—which is just an ability to adapt to change. This allows them to see how the profession changes, the software changes, the industry changes—and not get stuck in a rut. By using the software—which sometimes updates in the middle of the semester, and doesn't always work the way we think it will—they learn to troubleshoot and adapt to change without getting frustrated.//

https://www.edsurge.com/news/2018-08-20-how-to-bridge-theory-and-practice-in-the-classroom-with-a-real-world-tech-twist

//13 Mar 2020

 “By getting a degree alone, you cannot get a job. One must have skills in their area of education and complete interest on the job they are doing. Most importantly, students must be aware of employability,” said PV Vasanthakumar, convener HR committee,  Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) on 12 March.//

https://www.newindianexpress.com/states/tamil-nadu/2020/mar/13/many-students-do-not-know-to-apply-theory-they-have-learnt-2116008.html

COVID-19: Impact on Global Economy

//13 March 2020

Italy on 11 March, announced  measures worth as much as 25 billion euros ($28 billion) to cushion the blow of the pandemic. Those include help for companies whose turnover has plunged, a moratorium on some mortgage payments, and support for workers facing temporary layoffs and parents who must stay home to take care of kids when schools are closed.

On 12 March, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde unveiled her own stimulus package, but held off on cutting interest rates. When Lagarde said, “We are not here to close spreads,” the Italian bond market plunged and yields shot up by the most ever. By the end of the day, U.S. stocks had registered their worst sell-off since 1987's Black Monday.

The outbreak that started in China in January has infected more than 130,000 people in at least 114 countries and territories, shuttering cities, disrupting trade and supply chains, and shaking financial markets. With Europe facing the prospect of a recession, Italy is at the center of it all. The country’s public debt stands at about 2.4 trillion euros, almost 135% of gross domestic product.

Banks in other EU countries hold almost 450 billion euros in Italian sovereign debt. If the country goes under and those Italian holdings collapse in value, it would shake the foundations of the EU banking system. European banks are worried the crisis could even turn into a global meltdown like 2008. Their concern is that a virus-induced shutdown could spark a wave of defaults among the small and medium-sized enterprises that make up the economic backbone of countries such as Italy and Germany. That would wipe out profits at the lenders and potentially eat up much of the capital that regulators require them to set aside for a rainy day.//

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-03-13/italy-s-coronavirus-nightmare-offers-a-preview-of-what-s-coming


//14 Apr 2020

With the number of coronavirus infections nearing 2m globally, the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday it expected the global economy to shrink by 3.0% in 2020 – with rich western economies set to contract by 6.1% - in the steepest downturn since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

The European commission urged EU states to develop a uniform exit strategy that was “well coordinated between the member states, to avoid negative spillover effects,” saying that failure to do so could result in new spikes of the epidemic.

Lockdown exit plans

Exit plans begun

Italy: GDP to fall by 9.1% in 2020, IMF predicts. Bookshops, laundries, stationers, children’s clothes stores reopened in some regions; forestry workers and IT manufacturers back at work. Full lockdown set to end 4 May

Spain: GDP to fall by 9.1% in 2020, IMF predicts. Bookshops, laundries, stationers, children’s clothes stores reopened in some regions; forestry workers and IT manufacturers back at work. Full lockdown set to end 4 May

Austria: 7% fall. Public parks, small shops, DIY and gardening supply stores reopened with strict distancing rules and masks. If virus under control, all stores to reopen on 2 May, restaurants in mid-May.

Denmark: 6.5% fall. Daycare centres and primary schools to reopen 15 April, Restaurants, cafes closed and gatherings of more than 10 people banned until 10 May, larger gatherings until August.

France: 7.2%fall. Lockdown extended until 11 May, after which creches and schools to reopen progressively. Bars, restaurants, cinemas to stay closed; large public gatherings banned until at least mid-July.//

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/14/eu-countries-coronavirus-lockdown-italy-spain

//17 Mar 2020

Global growth may see a 0.4-1.5 per cent erosion, but RBI governor Shaktikannta Das refused to quantify the actual impact on India. As it is, the Indian economy needs no fresh trouble having sunk to a six-year low of 4.7 per cent just last December.

The current slowdown partly worsened due to the government’s rather belated admission of the abundant weakness in the economy, but Das defended that this time it’s different. Efforts were being mounted by the government on war-footing, as Covid-19 could impact India directly through trade channels, in which exposure to China is relatively high, he reasoned.//

https://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/2020/mar/17/coronavirus-could-dent-economy-admits-rbi-governor-shaktikannta-das-2117511.amp

COVID-19: Islamophobia, Hinduphobia, Euphoria, Phobophobia et al.

//11 Mar 2020

In early 2019, when Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Tamil Nadu, Twitter hashtags #GoBackModi and #TNWelcomesModi were both trending. An analytics report nailed these hashtags as the handiwork of bots, not human users. Such fake influences on social media are hard to beat. A recent research published in the prestigious journal Science tracked down millions of Twitter posts and found fake news and rumours spread faster than truth. In fighting fake news, we are in for the long haul. In contrast, coronavirus might be contained, even if not entirely eliminated, by a combination of quarantining, hygiene measures and possibly medicines.//

https://www.newindianexpress.com/opinions/2020/mar/11/the-networks-behind-the-coronavirus-spread-2115110.html

//06 Apr 2020

Authorities said they want to test or quarantine those who congregated at the event held by the missionary movement, Tablighi Jamaat, between March 10-12 over fears they are now spreading COVID-19 across Pakistan and overseas.

Tablighi mosques and the movement's other places of worship were shut down or marked as quarantine centres at the end of March.

Pakistan's Science and Technology Minister Fawad Chaudhry earlier expressed exasperation that the event had gone ahead, blaming the "stubbornness of the clergy".//

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/pakistan-quarantines-20000-tabligh-gathering-lahore-200406075221220.html

//07 Apr 2020

Of about 4,400 COVID-19 positive cases in India, nearly a third are related to the religious gathering at the Markaz, as the Jamaat headquarters is known. The government claimed more than 8,000 people, including foreigners, visited the headquarters in early March.
While accusing the Jamaat leadership of "carelessness" during a global pandemic, experts and civil society members also blamed the central government for its delayed response and allowing foreigners, particularly those coming from COVID-19 hotspot nations such as Malaysia and Indonesia, into India

"Our doubling rate is 4.1 days at present. But if additional cases reported due to the Tablighi Jamaat had not happened, then the doubling rate would have been 7.4 days," Lav Agarwal, joint secretary in India's Ministry of Health, told reporters on Sunday.

The group was vilified by the mainstream media for its "carelessness", and the country's 200 million Muslims were blamed for spreading the virus that has killed more than 70,000 people worldwide.
#CoronaJihad trended on Twitter, with many ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leaders calling the religious gathering "corona terrorism" - a term many said hinted at the Islamophobia of the governing party.//

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/tablighi-jamaat-event-india-worst-coronavirus-vector-200407052957511.html


//13 Apr 2020

Andrew Pierce, a journalist for the Daily Mail tabloid, tweeted on Sunday: "If families gather for holy month of Ramadan will there be a huge spike in Covid cases. Doctors are very worried."

An article published by The Times on the same day evoked similar sentiments, after it, too, suggested an increase in coronavirus cases due to a predicted increase in gatherings during Ramadan - despite social distancing regulations - leading with the headline, "Experts fear a spike in UK coronavirus cases during Ramadan".

Tell Mama, a group which monitors anti-Muslim attacks, reported dozens of incidents in March, where far-right groups were supposedly spreading conspiracy theories blaming Muslims for the COVID-19 pandemic.
The group have also had to debunk numerous social media posts spreading fake news. Among them was a tweet alleging some Muslims in Wembley, northwest London, were ignoring social distancing regulations by praying on the road.//

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/anger-wing-uk-voices-predict-ramadan-virus-spread-200413170844190.html

//19 Apr 2020

“[We] urge the Indian Govt to take urgent steps to stop the growing tide of Islamophobia in India and protect the rights of its persecuted Muslim minority as per its obligations under international Human Rights law,” said a tweet issued by OIC’s Independent Permanent Human Rights Commission (OIC-IPHRC) on 19 Apr.

On 18 Apr, it also held an expert hearing on “Religious Freedom on South Asia”, organised by the “Hindus for Human Rights”, “Indian-American Muslim Council” and “International Christian Concern,” ahead of its annual USCIRF report release on April 28, where India has been categorised as a “tier 2 country of particular concern.”

“As if its peremptory commentary on religious freedom in India is not enough, the USCIRF is now spreading misguided reports on the professional medical protocols followed to deal with spread of COVID-19 in India,” the MEA spokesperson had said.//

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/islamophobia-is-rising-in-india-says-organisation-of-islamic-cooperation/article31383624.ece

Solving the puzzle: US-Iran Tussle & UNO

Timeline of the Conflict:

August 1953:  The covert actions of the Secret Information Service (SIS) of the United Kingdom (UK) and the Central Investigation Agency (CIA) of the United States (US) connived a military coup- Operation Ajax, to topple the then Iran’s elected Prime Minister (PM) Mohammed Mossadegh, an ardent nationalist- who had plans to nationalize Iran’s oil industry and turn oil profits into investments for the Iranian people. 

January 1963: Last Shah of Iran-Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlevi- who had close ties with the West, introduced the ‘White Revolution’ and was the harbinger of a series of reforms.
 for example: allowing women 

Iran’s Islamic fundamentalists, Shi’ite clergy and the landlords led by Ayatollah Khomeini, were enraged with Shah’s initiatives based on liberal ideals of western thought. 

1979: They were successful in toppling the Shah's Rule fter years of protests and bloodshed. This came to be known as the Iranian Revolution.

The Iranian revolutionaries took to hostage 52 staff of the US embassy in Tehran for 444 days, following which the US severed all diplomatic relations 🤝❌with Iran, banned American exports to the country and expelled Iranian diplomats.

1983: Attack by Iran-backed militant group☮ Hezbollah in Beirut - killed 241 US Marines in Beirut.

Iran was added to the list of🚫 state sponsors of terrorism.

July 3, 1988: American 🇺🇸cruiser USS Vincennes fired a surface-to-air missile and shot down an Iran Air Flight 655- a passenger ✈️(Tehran-Dubai) over the Persian Gulf and killed all 290 aboard. The cruiser commander👨‍✈️ displayed an ‘error in identification’ and termed the commercial aircraft as a fighter aircraft.

2001: 
The 9/11 attack - George W. Bush administration to designate Iran as part of the “Axis of Evil” for supporting terrorism and pursuing weapons of mass destruction. 

2002: Iran’s clandestine nuclear program ☢, when the National Council of Resistance on Iran (NCRI), an Iranian exile group, revealed information that Iran had built nuclear-related facilities at Natanz and Arak that it had not revealed to the IAEA. 

2013: Obama-Rouhani administrations witnessed attempts at rapprochements between the US and Iran. The historic Iran nuclear deal between P5+1 (US, China, France, Russia and UK + Germany) and Iran was signed and was known as Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which freed over 100 billion dollars in frozen assets overseas for Iran and increased foreign access to the Iranian economy.

May 2018: President Donald Trump withdrew the US from the agreement and by November all the sanctions against Iran were reinstated.

2018: 
Escalation of Regional Tension:

Oill tanker attacks in the Gulf, Highly sophisticated and synchronized attack against oil facilities in Saudi Arabia.

Aug 2018: Attacking of Saudi facilities and the Abha International Airport in August.


Sep 2018: Attack on the large State-owned Aramco facility at Abquaiq and Khurais on 14 September which caused major damage to Saudi oil output, had been claimed by the Houthis in Yemen.

27 Dec 2019: Iran-backed Kataib Hezbollah attacked an air base in Iraq where American and Iraqi forces were stationed. It killed a US civilian contractor and wounded several US and Iraqi service members. 


Airstrikes against the Kataib Hezbollah fighters in Iraq and Syria were ordered within two days.

Incidentally, this move by the US was regretted by the EU, UK, France, China and Germany. Iran rejected US’ unilateral decision and vowed to defy the sanctions against it. Trump continued with his sanctions-strategy and imposed them on Hassan Rouhani, Iran’s foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, and other top officials of Iran including Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IGRC) of Iran. IGRC was designated as a terrorist organization.//

http://www.ipsnews.net/2020/01/us-iran-confrontation-implications-india/


Role and Function of UN in tackling US-Iran Conflicts.

The United Nations came into being in 1945, following the devastation of the Second World War, with one central mission: the maintenance of international peace and security. 

1. The UN does this by working to prevent conflict; 
2. helping parties in conflict make peace; peacekeeping; 
3. and creating the conditions to allow peace to hold and flourish. 

These activities often overlap and should reinforce one another, to be effective. The UN Security Council has the primary responsibility for international peace and security. The General Assembly and the Secretary-General play major, important, and complementary roles, along with other UN offices and bodies.

Preventive Diplomacy and Mediation

Supra-National, Multilateral Institution helps in keeping the negotiation, mediation intact.

Reactionary and Retaliatory measures of the Conflicting Parties are kept under check. This could prevent further escalation of the issues.

Member courties of UN offer Back-door Mediation and Negotiations Eg. Germany, Switzerland, France or other EU countries.

Peacekeeping - Preventing Escalation 

UN Security Council resolution to ensure the enforcement of the JCPOA, and guarantee that the UN’s atomic energy agency, the IAEA, continues to have regular access to and more information on Iran’s nuclear programme, was adopted in 2015.

Countering Terrorism

Mohammed Abdullah Al-Hadhrami, Minister for Foreign Affairs/Yemen also supported the outcomes of the comprehensive national dialogue and UN Security Council measures, particularly its resolution 2216 (2015), which demanded an end to the violence in Yemen and imposed sanctions on individuals it said were undermining the country’s stability.

Peacebuilding - Preventing Re-Escalation

Full implementation of resolution 2231, by all Member States “as an integral component of our collective conflict prevention efforts.”

 Mr. Al-Hadrami affirmed support for the UN facilitated peace process and the efforts of the UN Special Envoy for Yemen. He pledged to engage positively and flexibly in all peace measures, namely the Gulf Initiative and its executive mechanism.

Disarmament

The central demand in the first six resolutions was that Iran suspend its uranium enrichment program, as well as undertake several confidence-building measures outlined in a February 2006 International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors resolution - including reconsidering the construction of its heavy-water reactor and ratifying the IAEA Additional Protocol. The council initially laid out these calls in a nonbinding Security Council presidential statement adopted in March 2006. 

Chronology of Recent Events:


//15 May 2018

United States (US) pulled out of the Iran deal—the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which was signed in 2015 to ensure that Iran’s nuclear programme will be exclusively peaceful.

India’s trade with Iran stands at around $12 billion, and deficit with Iran stands at around $8 billion (5% of India’s total merchandise deficit). In 2017-18, India imported around 256 million tonnes of crude oil and its derived products worth $101 billion. Imports from Iran made up around 10% of this ($10 billion)—it is India’s third largest oil supplier after Saudi Arabia and Iraq. India and China are the largest importers of Iranian oil—accounting for 1.4mbpd of imports from Iran, which is about a third of the country’s total production.

Other major imports from Iran include fertilisers and organic & inorganic chemicals—India imported around $4.5 billion of fertilisers during 2017-18, and Iran ($0.5 billion) ranks amongst top three in India’s supplier of imported fertilisers. India’s exports to Iran mainly comprise of food items, organic chemicals and iron & steel. India may now resort to looking for waivers from the US or going back to using a mix of barter, rupee and gold to settle payments. Imposition of US sanctions might also adversely affect the development of Chabahar Port, which provides access to Afghanistan and Central Asia, bypassing Pakistan.//

https://www.financialexpress.com/opinion/will-india-get-impacted-by-us-iran-tussle/1167499/

//06 Aug 2019

Armed groups affiliated with the Al Qaeda and ISIL terror groups, appear to have intensified their activities in Yemen, Ravina Shamdasani, a spokesperson for the UN Human Rights Office (OHCHR) declared on Tuesday, describing the situation as an example of “deeply worrying developments” that have seriously impacted civilians over the past ten days.

Parts of the population in Al Dhale are not receiving any water supplies, she continued, with the only water reserve there, reportedly under the control of the Houthis, and many water pumps damaged or otherwise out of action.

In the statement, the spokesperson urged all parties to the conflict to “seek to de-escalate the situation, and to ensure that any attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure are meaningfully investigated and the perpetrators brought to justice”.//

https://news.un.org/en/story/2019/08/1043801

//28 Sep 2019

Denouncing Iran as a “rogue State that does not respect international law” or its obligations as a UN Member State, Mohammed Abdullah Al-Hadhrami, Minister for Foreign Affairs/Yemen said Iran and its “military arms in the Arab region, including Houthis and Hezbollah, pose a serious threat to our national security.”

he thanked Saudi Arabia for providing some $500 million to bolster theYemen humanitarian response plan. But he warned that Saudi Arabia and the wider international community’s efforts were being undermined not only by Iran-backed militias but by attacks he said were carried out by air assets belonging to the United Arab Emirates (UAE).//

https://news.un.org/en/story/2019/09/1048102

//19 Dec 2019

“Certain actions taken by the United States, since its withdrawal from the Plan, are contrary to the goals of the Plan”, she said and the re-imposition of its national sanctions lifted under the Plan, and decision not to extend waivers for the trade in oil with Iran.

But according to the IAEA, she added, Iran since July “has surpassed JCPOA-stipulated limits on its uranium enrichment level, as well as limits on its stockpiles of heavy water and low-enriched uranium.”

Steps have also been taken on centrifuge research and development: “Iran has stated that all these steps are reversible and that it intends to remain in the Plan. It is important that Iran returns to full implementation of the Plan, and refrain from further steps to reduce its commitments”, said the UN Political and Peacebuilding Affairs chief.//

https://news.un.org/en/story/2019/12/1054071

//06 Jan 2020
Iran said it had carried out Tuesday night’s ballistic missile attack against two air bases used by US and other coalition forces in Iraq, in retaliation for the targeted killing on the outskirts of Baghdad airport on Friday.

The bases struck were the large Al Asad base, west of Baghdad, and another in Erbil, the centre of Iraq’s Kurdish region. The strikes came just hours after the burial of the influential general, marked by huge crowds, in Iran.//

https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/01/1054961


//06 Jan 2020

A German Foreign Ministry spokesman said the deal struck between Iran and the United States, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany was not yet dead and two-way communication was ongoing. "Our goal remains to save the agreement," the spokesman said. "We are in talks on that."
As has been the case since President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew the United States from the deal in 2018, Britain, France and Germany find themselves as mediators, trying to convince Iran to stick with the pact and the Americans that they are tough-minded allies who will not be deceived by Tehran.//

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-eu-strategy-analysis-idUSKBN1Z529A
//08 Jan 2020

Iran retaliated on Wednesday for Soleimani's death by firing missiles at military facilities housing U.S. troops in Iraq. U.S. President Donald Trump said no Americans were hurt, soothing fears that Soleimani's death and the Iranian response could spark a wider conflict in the Middle East.

The killing of Soleimani in Baghdad on Friday was justified under Article 51 of the U.N. Charter, wrote Craft in the letter seen by Reuters, adding "the United States is prepared to take additional actions in the region as necessary to continue to protect U.S. personnel and interests."
Under Article 51, countries are required to "immediately report" to the 15-member Security Council any measures taken in exercising the right of self-defense. The United States used Article 51 to justify taking action in Syria against Islamic State militants in 2014.

In a letter to the U.N. Security Council, U.S. Ambassador Kelly Craft said the United States also stands "ready to engage without preconditions in serious negotiations with Iran, with the goal of preventing further endangerment of international peace and security or escalation by the Iranian regime."//

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iraq-security-usa-un-idUSKBN1Z809Q

//09 Jan 2020
The UN chief repeated his four-point message to world leaders, too, "Stop escalation. Exercise maximum restraint. Re-start dialogue", and "renew international cooperation." "This appeal remains as important today as it was on Monday. For his part, the Secretary-General will continue his active engagement with relevant actors," the statement said.

Guterres said it is "our common duty to make every effort to avoid a war in the Gulf that the world cannot afford. We must not forget the terrible human suffering caused by war. As always, ordinary people pay the highest price," Guterres said.//

https://www.firstpost.com/world/amid-us-iran-tensions-un-chief-antonio-guterres-says-world-cannot-afford-another-war-asks-all-parties-to-exercise-maximum-restraint-7883041.html

//10 Jan 2020

Switzerland, which has represented U.S. interests with Iran since shortly after the 1979 Islamic Revolution, has been the primary go-between.

Most communications so far are believed to have been aimed at deescalation, urging both sides to hold fire and preventing events from spiraling out of control, rather than opening talks.

French President Emmanuel Macron, who came close to persuading Trump and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani to sit at a negotiating table during meetings at the United Nations last fall, spoke at length with Rouhani following the Iranian missile strikes.

An emergency meeting of the European Union has been called for on 10th Jan in Brussels.

The tighter Washington has turned the screws, the more Iran has stepped up its tempo of guerrilla attacks on Saudi oil installations and on cargo ships in the Strait of Hormuz, among other operations.//

https://gulfnews.com/world/mena/back-channel-diplomacy-switzerland-mediating-between-the-us-and-iran-1.68912633

//21 Jan 2020

The report said Russian-made Tor-M1 missiles were launched at the Kyiv-bound Ukraine International Airlines jet shortly after it took off from Tehran at 6.12am local time. The aircraft last contact with air-traffic control at 8,100ft and disappeared from Iranian surveillance radars at 6.18am.

The aerospace chief of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, an elite, hardline branch of the Iranian military, said earlier this month a missile operator misidentified the plane as a cruise missile and had a 10-second window to decide whether to fire at the target. “Under such circumstances, he decides to make that bad decision: he engages, the missile is fired, and the plane is hit,” Ali Hajizadeh said.//

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/21/iran-admits-it-fired-two-missiles-at-ukrainian-passenger-jet

The downing of the Ukrainian airliner has an eerie similarity with the downing of the Iran Air in 1988 by the US. The reasons cited for both incidents were ‘human error’, and ‘miscalculation’.