22 December 2014
This is the FM Gold
channel of AIR, In the Program News Analysis now we bring you a dialogue on Impact of Cold waves in Normal
Life. The participants are DP Yathav, Scientist India Metrological Department & Prakash
chawla, Senior Journalist.
The plains in Northern
India have been witnessing extreme cold
conditions since 15th of December. People in a wave are not
really prepared, are caught really unaware on the 14th or 15th
when the wave came. And after that it is extremely cold, the city life
particular has been affected. It is been the difficult days for the poor dwellers or people who have no roof
over their head. They have great difficulty and there are reports of some
causality from the plains of Northern India. And there have be flight
cancellation, trains running late, Traffic condition getting into chaotic
situation, and maximum temperature also dipped causing lot of shivering to the
peak.
So Mr Yadav, How do you see this
phenomenon? Do you see as this is extraordinary?
Do you think that it is something which suddenly happens in the season,
mid-December it has to start? How do you
see this phenomenon?
Weather wise we call
the month of December, January, February has the winter season. When we say
winter, that means the temperature should be low, there should be fall, there
should be frost, and there should be snow fall in hilly state. That is the
usual weather. Sometimes, due to more rainfall or more snowfall which you call
be western disturbance, this is the system
originate in the Caspian… Mediterranean
Sea and moves East-ward across Iraq… Iran, Iraq, coming to Pakistan,
Afghanistan and then reaching to Jammu & Kashmir over western region. And
then give snowfall in the states of J&K, Uttarkhand and some sort of
rainfall in Haryana & Punjab. When that happens... when such a Western
Disturbance… Then these western disturbances affect northern plains of India nearly 3 to 4 times in any month. But
every Western Disturbance don’t give same amount of precipitation, some give
more precipitation, some give less rainfall, some give more snowfall, what have
happened this year, till the mid of December there was no such western
disturbance which have given any rainfall, you can say snowfall in the hills.
Therefore the days were very comfortable, to get up in the morning; there were
bright sunshine whole throughout the day. And it was very comfortable rather
the temperatures were more than the normal most part of October – December even
the November – Mid December. But when it came to Mid-December, there is a
commensal of time when the real winter starts. The Mid-December to Mid-January, this is one month most severe winter.
So, this year 13th -14th of December, the strong western
disturbance came which called Heavy snowfall in Himachal Pradesh, Uttarkhand.
Lot of tourist was struck in the Himachal & Uttarkhand. There were reports
of Casualty. And then in the place also we got wide spread rainfall, Delhi, and
here for Haryana, Up, Bihar. This year was Maharashtra got rainfall, when such
large area got rainfall; the region is full of moisture. Once the Western Disturbance
moves away, the northerly wind from
western Himalayas comes down, these are chilly winds. These bring down the
temperature within 24 hours by 4-6 degree centigrade.
Chilly wind added with
the moisture that is available because of the rain, and it combined together
resulted in the fog and further fall in the temperature.
What happen, the chilly
winds came from Himalayan region, and they bought down the temperature of the
plain. And there was a lot of moisture available, because… that is all because
rainfall gave lot of moisture. This provided a favorable conducive situation
for dense fog. And have been
occurring form Punjab to Haryana to Delhi to Uttar Pradesh to Bihar, even some
part of West Bengal, Assam, Tripura, Meghalaya and even northern part of Madhya
Pradesh. So many states are affected by dense fog, and once it is set on, it
doesn’t lift away very easily, they come day after day, and you get sometimes
in evening, sometimes in the daytime. It keeps coming.
You
have been said what is maximum hardship is been caused not by the minimum
temperature in the night, but the day temperature nap the day. There have been
tremendous fall in the maximum temperature. We will be surprised to know, there
is a maximum temperature in the Punjab, Haryana it is like minimum temperature,
if I give you the value. It is even around 8 degree Celsius. Amritsar reordered a maximum temperature of 8
degree Celsius in this season and there are some of the places which have
reported a maximum temperature less than 10 degree Celsius in Punjab, Haryana
and northern Rajasthan. You can’t believe when maximum temperature is 10 degree or below 10 degree which is less than
the normal temperature (18-19 degree).
Is this is sunshine during the day
in the places where the maximum temperature drops down?
You
see, there is hardly any bright sunshine, when the temperature is so low.
Because if there is sunshine, the temperature should rise but because the
temperature is so low, that means two things are happening, one, the cold
chilly winds are continuously coming from the Himalayan region this month, and
there is no bright sunshine. Otherwise it’s very foggy or this cloudy also
sometime mixed fog & cloud that is happening. But as if, it is mainly due
to fog. The worst states which are to fog is Bihar, Eastern Part of Uttar
Pradesh and these parts is because starting from Lucknow to Varnasi to
Sultanpur to Gorahpur to Allahabad these areas are northern part of Bihar,
Badhalpur. Those areas are the worst, because of dense fog, day night fog, low
sunshine, temperature very low, there has been many report of many lives to
very severe cold in UP .
No
wonder the train especially going in these direction UP, Bihar are severely
affected, the trains are running late by 10hours to 12 hours. That is the worst
part of this cold wind, transport, particularly Railways and Air transport are
very badly affected.
And
the health condition of the people also get affected,
That
is there, particularly the child and elder usually. Because of …
What kind of impact do you see, due
to these climatic conditions, on the crops?
Crops has two fold reaction or you
say impact in Punjab and part of Haryana may
be some part of UP, there is irrigation. But many other regions of Bihar,
Jharkhand, MP or Maharashtra are rain-fed crops. Even in Punjab& Haryana
some of the crops like grams, mustard, are taken as rain-fed crops where there is no rainfall, they depends upon the
rainfall, some light rainfall here and there and moisture, ruminant or residual
of the monsoon rainfall. If rainfall occurs this is just like boon to the crop.
And this year very good rainfall occurred in the most part of north India,
central India up to Madhya Pradesh, Bihar & UP. Am sure this rainfall must
have done much wonder to the crops.
What about the insistent of falling
temperature?
There
is a reverse part of it. Once the rainfall occurs, it is beneficial to the
crop. But after the rainfall two things can happen, one is the continuous dense fog, as I reporting from Bihar
& UP. These dense fog conditions, takes days together 10days – 15 days even
20days. There are years of 20 days continuous day & night dense fog in
Northern plain. During such time, light
is cut off, there is no photosynthesis or less photosynthesis and because
of this moisture continuously available on the leaves, some disease may grow up
on the leaves or vegetable. Sometimes fog does not occur, if the wind speed is
above normal, if there is no fog, if the winds are stronger fog will not occur.
In that case Frost will occur; this
is most damaging of the winter crops.
We
keep our fingers crossed, to see the impact. I will take you to another issue
Mr. Yadhav, and that relates to the climatic conditions as the greenhouse gas
effect, climatic, over all global. This particular extreme weather we are
witnessing. As we discussing earlier, the tenure of the season especially
winter has really become short is about a month & half that we really see
the bitting cold here in the northern India. Do you relate these phenomenons of extreme weather limited to a month
to the overall climatic changes?
One
thing we should not simplify the
phenomenon of global warming or climate change by relating it with a single
phenomenon or single event, of particular region. This year fog origin is low
day temperature from 15th Dec till date; it is near one week weather
only. If we relate one week weather with the climate change that globally is not justify. Although, we are aware
that the variability of the atmosphere as the weather has increased either it
is drought or area with very high temperature or very low temperature there is
the happening, Extreme weather events are increasing. But you are actually said
for so far winter is concern, the cold night or cold wave nights are decreasing
the duration of winter season is bit shrinking because of the rise in the
minimum temperature that is reported in our observation. No forecast is required
further.
But
at the same time, this fog phenomenon also increased, it is not so strong and
heavy before 90’s. But after last 15 years or 20 years, the fog phenomenon also
increased continuously, but to relate it to a global warming or climate change
we have to see further date else it will be oversimplification. It will
be oversimplification to relate any event simply to the climate change or
global warming.
In fact, you relate the fall in
night temperature and this fall in night temperature, this phenomenon is now
limited to few days. But had I got to do something with the greenhouse impact?
That
is the real issue, the minimum temperature in the North India in many places
increasing that is cold is decreasing and that is related to global warming.
The data suggesting, the minimum
temperature increasing, that means there are lot of pollution available in the atmosphere to trap the radiation
emitted by the earth. That is the man-made cause you can say greenhouse effect
due to the emission of many gas, transport pollutant, emission from the traffic
and then all lot many things changing the land pattern, use pattern,
distillation, concrete buildings lot of cutting of, deforestation, many other
things which are related, or causing global warming, the impact of that all the
man-made effect, the minimum temperature are increasing, the night temperature
is not cordial year.
What is the Phenomenon Mr. Yadav
you see in the hills? There has been lot of deforestation in the hills, and
then the entire phenomenon of snowfall. Do you see the change in snowfall
pattern in hills or Himalayas?
We
are receiving snowfall or heavy snowfall due to western disturbance. This is
the system not true to our country;
this is the system true to polar region, or the middle latitude, or the
European countries, this is the system which affects just the northern tip of our country.
So as far as change in the snowfall
pattern is concern, there is not much change?
The
total quantum of the snowfall or rainfall in the period of time say 100 years,
there is no change in the quantum. What
should be the total snowfall in the winter season, or what should be the total
amount of total rainfall in the monsoon season, the quantum is not much under
change. But what has happened is, change, year to year the variability has increased, in one year very low snowfall, in other
year very high snowfall.
What about the concern of the
glaciers are melting and we keep reading those reports?
These
are the reports from many schools of
scientist reporting that glaciers are melting, but some others are reporting
some glaciers are increasing inside. Still these observations or reports are
not general. In general there are report
that glaciers are melting, the snow melt is increasing, and that is why
more water in rivers and sea level also
increasing. There are observations to it.
There are counter observation also available, through different groups
which have conducted various research in the glacier and climate change.
So
in a way because of the Greenhouse gas impact, because of the increasing
pollution in the cities, concretization, concrete jungle in the cities, the
minimum temperature raises, and that is leading to the lesser cold. But if you relate it to the overall climate
changing condition, then it is over simplification?
Any
particular event of the particular region or particular states should not be
directly related to global warming. Global warming can be the one of the reason
to contribute to it, but there is many other factors inherent nature to that
particular event, that is also responsible. I just give one example: Monsoon
for very incident, it has its own nature, once it is drought years, less
monsoon we say global warming, because once it is flood year, we say global
warming. This type of drought years and flood years were also occurring in 1950s
or 70s when there were no terms of Global warming. Such type of temperatures
that record available with IMD for the
last 125 years, the temperature much more extreme that this was recorded
earlier. The lowest temperature in Delhi in the winter season -0.6 recorded
somewhere in 1935, the highest/ maximum temperature was recorded somewhere in
1940s & 50s in many parts of the country. So these things are occurring
earlier also, as of now the frequency of
such occurrences or repetition cycle has increased.
How
is the Mr.Yadav, this year’s Maximum
temperature and the minimum temperature that we are witnessing now, to what
extend they are away from the Normal?
Minimum
temperatures are not away from the normal. The minimum temperature and night
temperature are near to the normal. There is not such cold waves from Punjab to
Bihar but the day temperatures are highly away from the normal particularly
over Punjab, Bihar, UP 10 – 12 degree away from normal. But they should be half
of that, because of that, the prolong more severe.
But do you see things affecting in
a way?
Lot…
Some improvement has affecting in next 2 days i.e. 48 hours, we expect that the
fog will not be as much as it was today. There will be increase in the
Temperature.
So
it will not be as cold as Christmas party!!
You are listening to a
dialogue on Impact of Cold waves in
Normal Life. The participants are DP Yathav, Scientist India Metrological D
& Prakash chawla, Senior Journalist.
This came to you in the program News Analysis
produced & presented by News services division on All India Radio.
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GIST: Impact of Cold Waves in
Normal Life
Extreme
cold condition – affecting city life – poor people who have no roof over their
head - Traffic condition getting
into chaotic situation – More snowfall due to western disturbance – affect
Northern plain – severe winter between Mid- December to Mid-January – Health
condition of people get affected - Reports
of Casualty ; once Western disturbance moves away, northerly wind from
western Himalayas comes down, chilly winds bring down the temperature – even
below 10 degree Celsius (whereas normal is 18 degree)- lot of moisture – cause dense fog; worst affected states- Bihar, Eastern UP- worst part, it affect
Transport particularly Railways &
Air Transport; Impact on Crops – Two
fold reactions (Temperature & Precipitation) – Bihar, Jharkhand, MP,
Maharashtra most are Rain-fed crops
; Insistent of falling temperature – rainfall beneficial to crops but 2 things
can happen after Rainfall – Either Dense
fog (if strong wind blow above
normal) or Frost(if wind speed is
normal) ; Dense fog – light is cut off – no/less photosynthesis whereas frost
are most damaging of the winter crops; Relating to Global Warming- event of particular region cannot be relate as such
– it will be oversimplification – Record
available with IMD last 125 years – the phenomenon had occurred in 30s &
40s when there was no Global warming – Now the frequency & repetition cycle
has increased; Greenhouse Impact –
fall in temperature phenomenon for limited days - Data suggesting – Atmospheric pollution – trap radiation
from Earth – also changing land pattern, deforestation, concretization of
cities; Phenomenon of Snowfall –
system of Western disturbance – true to Polar region, European countries, middle
latitude – it affect only the northern tip of our country – No change in
the quantum
of snowfall for almost 100years – only
variability has increased; Glacier
are melting & rising sea level – reported from school of scientist – there
is counter argument – glaciers are increasing inside; this year Minimum temperature close to the normal
whereas Maximum temperature away
from Normal by 10-12 degree;
