Impact of Cold Waves in Normal Life

22 December 2014

This is the FM Gold channel of AIR, In the Program News Analysis now we bring you a dialogue on Impact of Cold waves in Normal Life. The participants are DP Yathav, Scientist India Metrological Department & Prakash chawla, Senior Journalist.

The plains in Northern India have been witnessing extreme cold conditions since 15^th of December. People in a wave are not really prepared, are caught really unaware on the 14^th or 15^th when the wave came. And after that it is extremely cold, the city life particular has been affected. It is been the difficult days for the poor dwellers or people who have no roof over their head. They have great difficulty and there are reports of some causality from the plains of Northern India. And there have be flight cancellation, trains running late, Traffic condition getting into chaotic situation, and maximum temperature also dipped causing lot of shivering to the peak. 

So Mr Yadav, How do you see this phenomenon? Do you see as this is extraordinary? Do you think that it is something which suddenly happens in the season, mid-December it has to start? How do you see this phenomenon?

Weather wise we call the month of December, January, February has the winter season. When we say winter, that means the temperature should be low, there should be fall, there should be frost, and there should be snow fall in hilly state. That is the usual weather. Sometimes, due to more rainfall or more snowfall which you call be western disturbance, this is the system originate in the Caspian… Mediterranean Sea and moves East-ward across Iraq… Iran, Iraq, coming to Pakistan, Afghanistan and then reaching to Jammu & Kashmir over western region. And then give snowfall in the states of J&K, Uttarkhand and some sort of rainfall in Haryana & Punjab. When that happens... when such a Western Disturbance… Then these western disturbances affect northern plains of India nearly 3 to 4 times in any month. But every Western Disturbance don’t give same amount of precipitation, some give more precipitation, some give less rainfall, some give more snowfall, what have happened this year, till the mid of December there was no such western disturbance which have given any rainfall, you can say snowfall in the hills. Therefore the days were very comfortable, to get up in the morning; there were bright sunshine whole throughout the day. And it was very comfortable rather the temperatures were more than the normal most part of October – December even the November – Mid December. But when it came to Mid-December, there is a commensal of time when the real winter starts. The Mid-December to Mid-January, this is one month most severe winter. So, this year 13^th -14^th of December, the strong western disturbance came which called Heavy snowfall in Himachal Pradesh, Uttarkhand. Lot of tourist was struck in the Himachal & Uttarkhand. There were reports of Casualty. And then in the place also we got wide spread rainfall, Delhi, and here for Haryana, Up, Bihar. This year was Maharashtra got rainfall, when such large area got rainfall; the region is full of moisture. Once the Western Disturbance moves away, the northerly wind from western Himalayas comes down, these are chilly winds. These bring down the temperature within 24 hours by 4-6 degree centigrade.

Chilly wind added with the moisture that is available because of the rain, and it combined together resulted in the fog and further fall in the temperature.

What happen, the chilly winds came from Himalayan region, and they bought down the temperature of the plain. And there was a lot of moisture available, because… that is all because rainfall gave lot of moisture. This provided a favorable conducive situation for dense fog. And have been occurring form Punjab to Haryana to Delhi to Uttar Pradesh to Bihar, even some part of West Bengal, Assam, Tripura, Meghalaya and even northern part of Madhya Pradesh. So many states are affected by dense fog, and once it is set on, it doesn’t lift away very easily, they come day after day, and you get sometimes in evening, sometimes in the daytime. It keeps coming.

You have been said what is maximum hardship is been caused not by the minimum temperature in the night, but the day temperature nap the day. There have been tremendous fall in the maximum temperature. We will be surprised to know, there is a maximum temperature in the Punjab, Haryana it is like minimum temperature, if I give you the value. It is even around 8 degree Celsius.  Amritsar reordered a maximum temperature of 8 degree Celsius in this season and there are some of the places which have reported a maximum temperature less than 10 degree Celsius in Punjab, Haryana and northern Rajasthan. You can’t believe when maximum temperature is 10 degree or below 10 degree which is less than the normal temperature (18-19 degree).

Is this is sunshine during the day in the places where the maximum temperature drops down?

You see, there is hardly any bright sunshine, when the temperature is so low. Because if there is sunshine, the temperature should rise but because the temperature is so low, that means two things are happening, one, the cold chilly winds are continuously coming from the Himalayan region this month, and there is no bright sunshine. Otherwise it’s very foggy or this cloudy also sometime mixed fog & cloud that is happening. But as if, it is mainly due to fog. The worst states which are to fog is Bihar, Eastern Part of Uttar Pradesh and these parts is because starting from Lucknow to Varnasi to Sultanpur to Gorahpur to Allahabad these areas are northern part of Bihar, Badhalpur. Those areas are the worst, because of dense fog, day night fog, low sunshine, temperature very low, there has been many report of many lives to very severe cold in UP .

No wonder the train especially going in these direction UP, Bihar are severely affected, the trains are running late by 10hours to 12 hours. That is the worst part of this cold wind, transport, particularly Railways and Air transport are very badly affected.

And the health condition of the people also get affected,

That is there, particularly the child and elder usually. Because of …

What kind of impact do you see, due to these climatic conditions, on the crops?

Crops has two fold reaction or you say impact in Punjab and part of Haryana may be some part of UP, there is irrigation. But many other regions of Bihar, Jharkhand, MP or Maharashtra are rain-fed crops. Even in Punjab& Haryana some of the crops like grams, mustard, are taken as rain-fed crops where there is no rainfall, they depends upon the rainfall, some light rainfall here and there and moisture, ruminant or residual of the monsoon rainfall. If rainfall occurs this is just like boon to the crop. And this year very good rainfall occurred in the most part of north India, central India up to Madhya Pradesh, Bihar & UP. Am sure this rainfall must have done much wonder to the crops.

What about the insistent of falling temperature?

There is a reverse part of it. Once the rainfall occurs, it is beneficial to the crop. But after the rainfall two things can happen, one is the continuous dense fog, as I reporting from Bihar & UP. These dense fog conditions, takes days together 10days – 15 days even 20days. There are years of 20 days continuous day & night dense fog in Northern plain. During such time, light is cut off, there is no photosynthesis or less photosynthesis and because of this moisture continuously available on the leaves, some disease may grow up on the leaves or vegetable. Sometimes fog does not occur, if the wind speed is above normal, if there is no fog, if the winds are stronger fog will not occur. In that case Frost will occur; this is most damaging of the winter crops.

We keep our fingers crossed, to see the impact. I will take you to another issue Mr. Yadhav, and that relates to the climatic conditions as the greenhouse gas effect, climatic, over all global. This particular extreme weather we are witnessing. As we discussing earlier, the tenure of the season especially winter has really become short is about a month & half that we really see the bitting cold here in the northern India. Do you relate these phenomenons of extreme weather limited to a month to the overall climatic changes?

One thing we should not simplify the phenomenon of global warming or climate change by relating it with a single phenomenon or single event, of particular region. This year fog origin is low day temperature from 15^th Dec till date; it is near one week weather only. If we relate one week weather with the climate change that globally is not justify. Although, we are aware that the variability of the atmosphere as the weather has increased either it is drought or area with very high temperature or very low temperature there is the happening, Extreme weather events are increasing. But you are actually said for so far winter is concern, the cold night or cold wave nights are decreasing the duration of winter season is bit shrinking because of the rise in the minimum temperature that is reported in our observation. No forecast is required further.

But at the same time, this fog phenomenon also increased, it is not so strong and heavy before 90’s. But after last 15 years or 20 years, the fog phenomenon also increased continuously, but to relate it to a global warming or climate change we have to see further date else it will be oversimplification.  It will be oversimplification to relate any event simply to the climate change or global warming.

In fact, you relate the fall in night temperature and this fall in night temperature, this phenomenon is now limited to few days. But had I got to do something with the greenhouse impact?

That is the real issue, the minimum temperature in the North India in many places increasing that is cold is decreasing and that is related to global warming. The data suggesting, the minimum temperature increasing, that means there are lot of pollution available in the atmosphere to trap the radiation emitted by the earth. That is the man-made cause you can say greenhouse effect due to the emission of many gas, transport pollutant, emission from the traffic and then all lot many things changing the land pattern, use pattern, distillation, concrete buildings lot of cutting of, deforestation, many other things which are related, or causing global warming, the impact of that all the man-made effect, the minimum temperature are increasing, the night temperature is not cordial year.

What is the Phenomenon Mr. Yadav you see in the hills? There has been lot of deforestation in the hills, and then the entire phenomenon of snowfall. Do you see the change in snowfall pattern in hills or Himalayas?

We are receiving snowfall or heavy snowfall due to western disturbance. This is the system not true to our country; this is the system true to polar region, or the middle latitude, or the European countries, this is the system which affects just the northern tip of our country.

So as far as change in the snowfall pattern is concern, there is not much change?

The total quantum of the snowfall or rainfall in the period of time say 100 years, there is no change in the quantum. What should be the total snowfall in the winter season, or what should be the total amount of total rainfall in the monsoon season, the quantum is not much under change. But what has happened is, change, year to year the variability has increased, in one year very low snowfall, in other year very high snowfall.

What about the concern of the glaciers are melting and we keep reading those reports?

These are the reports from many schools of scientist reporting that glaciers are melting, but some others are reporting some glaciers are increasing inside. Still these observations or reports are not general. In general there are report that glaciers are melting, the snow melt is increasing, and that is why more water in rivers and sea level also increasing. There are observations to it.  There are counter observation also available, through different groups which have conducted various research in the glacier and climate change.

So in a way because of the Greenhouse gas impact, because of the increasing pollution in the cities, concretization, concrete jungle in the cities, the minimum temperature raises, and that is leading to the lesser cold. But if you relate it to the overall climate changing condition, then it is over simplification?

Any particular event of the particular region or particular states should not be directly related to global warming. Global warming can be the one of the reason to contribute to it, but there is many other factors inherent nature to that particular event, that is also responsible. I just give one example: Monsoon for very incident, it has its own nature, once it is drought years, less monsoon we say global warming, because once it is flood year, we say global warming. This type of drought years and flood years were also occurring in 1950s or 70s when there were no terms of Global warming. Such type of temperatures that record available with IMD for the last 125 years, the temperature much more extreme that this was recorded earlier. The lowest temperature in Delhi in the winter season -0.6 recorded somewhere in 1935, the highest/ maximum temperature was recorded somewhere in 1940s & 50s in many parts of the country. So these things are occurring earlier also, as of now the frequency of such occurrences or repetition cycle has increased.

How is the Mr.Yadav, this year’s Maximum temperature and the minimum temperature that we are witnessing now, to what extend they are away from the Normal?

Minimum temperatures are not away from the normal. The minimum temperature and night temperature are near to the normal. There is not such cold waves from Punjab to Bihar but the day temperatures are highly away from the normal particularly over Punjab, Bihar, UP 10 – 12 degree away from normal. But they should be half of that, because of that, the prolong more severe.

But do you see things affecting in a way?

Lot… Some improvement has affecting in next 2 days i.e. 48 hours, we expect that the fog will not be as much as it was today. There will be increase in the Temperature.

So it will not be as cold as Christmas party!!

You are listening to a dialogue on Impact of Cold waves in Normal Life. The participants are DP Yathav, Scientist India Metrological D & Prakash chawla, Senior Journalist.

 This came to you in the program News Analysis produced & presented by News services division on All India Radio.

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GIST: Impact of Cold Waves in Normal Life

Extreme cold condition – affecting city life – poor people who have no roof over their head - Traffic condition getting into chaotic situation – More snowfall due to western disturbance – affect Northern plain – severe winter between Mid- December to Mid-January – Health condition of people get affected - Reports of Casualty ; once Western disturbance moves away, northerly wind from western Himalayas comes down, chilly winds bring down the temperature – even below 10 degree Celsius (whereas normal is 18 degree)- lot of moisture – cause dense fog; worst affected states- Bihar, Eastern UP- worst part, it affect Transport particularly Railways  & Air Transport; Impact on Crops – Two fold reactions (Temperature & Precipitation) – Bihar, Jharkhand, MP, Maharashtra most are Rain-fed crops ; Insistent of falling temperature – rainfall beneficial to crops but 2 things can happen after Rainfall – Either Dense fog (if strong wind blow above normal) or Frost(if wind speed is normal) ; Dense fog – light is cut off – no/less photosynthesis whereas frost are most damaging of the winter crops; Relating to Global Warming- event of particular region cannot be relate as such – it will be oversimplification – Record available with IMD last 125 years – the phenomenon had occurred in 30s & 40s when there was no Global warming – Now the frequency & repetition cycle has increased; Greenhouse Impact – fall in temperature phenomenon for limited days - Data suggesting – Atmospheric pollution – trap radiation from Earth – also changing land pattern, deforestation, concretization of cities; Phenomenon of Snowfall – system of Western disturbance – true to Polar region, European countries, middle latitude – it affect only the northern tip of our country – No change in the  quantum of snowfall for almost 100years – only variability has increased;  Glacier are melting & rising sea level – reported from school of scientist – there is counter argument – glaciers are increasing inside; this year Minimum temperature close to the normal whereas Maximum temperature away from Normal by 10-12 degree;